Abstract
This paper presents a cusp catastrophe model for the Hong Kong housing market, to explain discontinuous change in housing prices. The paper begins by describing the significance of applying the catastrophe model to the analysis of discontinuous changes in housing prices. The study focuses on the housing price systems effects of equilibrium price level, interaction between housing supply and demand, and vacant units. Lagged supply makes housing price fall due to decreasing in demand for housing. The validity of applying a catastrophe model to housing price analysis is examined by testing yearly data from Hong Kong. The analysis result shows that the ratio of vacant and the equilibrium take-up units can be used for examining discontinuous change in housing prices.
| Original language | English |
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| Title of host publication | Proceedings of the 2006 HKU-NUS Symposium on Real Estate Research, Hong Kong, 27 - 28 July 2006 |
| Publisher | Hong Kong University |
| Pages | 229-270 |
| Number of pages | 42 |
| Publication status | Published - 2006 |
| Event | Symposium on Real Estate Research - Duration: 1 Jan 2006 → … |
Conference
| Conference | Symposium on Real Estate Research |
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| Period | 1/01/06 → … |