A laboratory study of Bayesian updating in small feedback-based decision problems

Takemi Fujikawa, Sobei H. Oda

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    This study explores small feedback-based decision problems experimentally. Conducted were the experiments in which the decision-makerââ"šÂ¬Ã¢"žÂ¢s payoff distribution was limited to either favorable distribution or unfavorable distribution. The first remarkable observation revealed complexity/loss aversion in the experiment. The second observation included the law of small numbers. Deviations from maximization were also observed. Finally, we investigated the imperfect Bayesian decision-makers observed in the experiment by exploring to what extent the decision-makers could update subjective Bayesian probability and rely on it in making decisions.
    Original languageEnglish
    Number of pages5
    JournalAmerican Journal of Applied Sciences
    Publication statusPublished - 2005

    Keywords

    • Bayesian statistical decision theory
    • decision making
    • experimental economics
    • mathematical models
    • statistical decision
    • uncertainty

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