A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands

Chunjing Qiu; Philippe Ciais; Dan Zhu; Bertrand Guenet; Jinfeng Chang; Nitin Chaudhary; Thomas Kleinen; XinYu Li; Jurek Müller; Yi Xi; Wenxin Zhang; Ashley Ballantyne; Simon C. Brewer; Victor Brovkin; Dan J. Charman; Adrian Gustafson; Angela V. Gallego-Sala; Thomas Gasser; Joseph Holden; Fortunat Joos; Min Jung Kwon; Ronny Lauerwald; Paul A. Miller; Shushi Peng; Susan Page; Benjamin Smith; Benjamin D. Stocker; A. Britta K. Sannel; Elodie Salmon; Guy Schurgers; Narasinha J. Shurpali; David Wårlind; Sebastian Westermann

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.008

A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands

Chunjing Qiu, Philippe Ciais, Dan Zhu, Bertrand Guenet, Jinfeng Chang, Nitin Chaudhary, Thomas Kleinen, XinYu Li, Jurek Müller, Yi Xi, Wenxin Zhang, Ashley Ballantyne, Simon C. Brewer, Victor Brovkin, Dan J. Charman, Adrian Gustafson, Angela V. Gallego-Sala, Thomas Gasser, Joseph Holden, Fortunat JoosMin Jung Kwon, Ronny Lauerwald, Paul A. Miller, Shushi Peng, Susan Page, Benjamin Smith, Benjamin D. Stocker, A. Britta K. Sannel, Elodie Salmon, Guy Schurgers, Narasinha J. Shurpali, David Wårlind, Sebastian Westermann

Western Sydney University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Northern peatlands store 300–600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO2 and CH4 fluxes from northern peatlands using five land surface models that explicitly include representation of peatland processes. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, northern peatlands are projected to remain a net sink of CO2 and climate neutral for the next three centuries. A shift to a net CO2 source and a substantial increase in CH4 emissions are projected under RCP8.5, which could exacerbate global warming by 0.21ÃÂ°C (range, 0.09–0.49ÃÂ°C) by the year 2300. The true warming impact of peatlands might be higher owing to processes not simulated by the models and direct anthropogenic disturbance. Our study highlights the importance of understanding how future warming might trigger high carbon losses from northern peatlands.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	86-97
Number of pages	12
Journal	One Earth
Volume	5
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.008
Publication status	Published - 2022

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Qiu, C., Ciais, P., Zhu, D., Guenet, B., Chang, J., Chaudhary, N., Kleinen, T., Li, X., Müller, J., Xi, Y., Zhang, W., Ballantyne, A., Brewer, S. C., Brovkin, V., Charman, D. J., Gustafson, A., Gallego-Sala, A. V., Gasser, T., Holden, J., ... Westermann, S. (2022). A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands. One Earth, 5(1), 86-97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.008

@article{f6eb6bbe40fd4c57b8c2c708272d950f,

title = "A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands",

abstract = "Northern peatlands store 300–600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO2 and CH4 fluxes from northern peatlands using five land surface models that explicitly include representation of peatland processes. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, northern peatlands are projected to remain a net sink of CO2 and climate neutral for the next three centuries. A shift to a net CO2 source and a substantial increase in CH4 emissions are projected under RCP8.5, which could exacerbate global warming by 0.21{\~A}{\^A}°C (range, 0.09–0.49{\~A}{\^A}°C) by the year 2300. The true warming impact of peatlands might be higher owing to processes not simulated by the models and direct anthropogenic disturbance. Our study highlights the importance of understanding how future warming might trigger high carbon losses from northern peatlands.",

author = "Chunjing Qiu and Philippe Ciais and Dan Zhu and Bertrand Guenet and Jinfeng Chang and Nitin Chaudhary and Thomas Kleinen and XinYu Li and Jurek M{\"u}ller and Yi Xi and Wenxin Zhang and Ashley Ballantyne and Brewer, {Simon C.} and Victor Brovkin and Charman, {Dan J.} and Adrian Gustafson and Gallego-Sala, {Angela V.} and Thomas Gasser and Joseph Holden and Fortunat Joos and Kwon, {Min Jung} and Ronny Lauerwald and Miller, {Paul A.} and Shushi Peng and Susan Page and Benjamin Smith and Stocker, {Benjamin D.} and Sannel, {A. Britta K.} and Elodie Salmon and Guy Schurgers and Shurpali, {Narasinha J.} and David W{\aa}rlind and Sebastian Westermann",

year = "2022",

doi = "10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.008",

language = "English",

volume = "5",

pages = "86--97",

journal = "One Earth",

issn = "2590-3330",

publisher = "Cell Press",

number = "1",

}

Qiu, C, Ciais, P, Zhu, D, Guenet, B, Chang, J, Chaudhary, N, Kleinen, T, Li, X, Müller, J, Xi, Y, Zhang, W, Ballantyne, A, Brewer, SC, Brovkin, V, Charman, DJ, Gustafson, A, Gallego-Sala, AV, Gasser, T, Holden, J, Joos, F, Kwon, MJ, Lauerwald, R, Miller, PA, Peng, S, Page, S , Smith, B, Stocker, BD, Sannel, ABK, Salmon, E, Schurgers, G, Shurpali, NJ, Wårlind, D & Westermann, S 2022, 'A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands', One Earth, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 86-97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.008

TY - JOUR

T1 - A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands

AU - Qiu, Chunjing

AU - Ciais, Philippe

AU - Zhu, Dan

AU - Guenet, Bertrand

AU - Chang, Jinfeng

AU - Chaudhary, Nitin

AU - Kleinen, Thomas

AU - Li, XinYu

AU - Müller, Jurek

AU - Xi, Yi

AU - Zhang, Wenxin

AU - Ballantyne, Ashley

AU - Brewer, Simon C.

AU - Brovkin, Victor

AU - Charman, Dan J.

AU - Gustafson, Adrian

AU - Gallego-Sala, Angela V.

AU - Gasser, Thomas

AU - Holden, Joseph

AU - Joos, Fortunat

AU - Kwon, Min Jung

AU - Lauerwald, Ronny

AU - Miller, Paul A.

AU - Peng, Shushi

AU - Page, Susan

AU - Smith, Benjamin

AU - Stocker, Benjamin D.

AU - Sannel, A. Britta K.

AU - Salmon, Elodie

AU - Schurgers, Guy

AU - Shurpali, Narasinha J.

AU - Wårlind, David

AU - Westermann, Sebastian

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - Northern peatlands store 300–600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO2 and CH4 fluxes from northern peatlands using five land surface models that explicitly include representation of peatland processes. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, northern peatlands are projected to remain a net sink of CO2 and climate neutral for the next three centuries. A shift to a net CO2 source and a substantial increase in CH4 emissions are projected under RCP8.5, which could exacerbate global warming by 0.21ÃÂ°C (range, 0.09–0.49ÃÂ°C) by the year 2300. The true warming impact of peatlands might be higher owing to processes not simulated by the models and direct anthropogenic disturbance. Our study highlights the importance of understanding how future warming might trigger high carbon losses from northern peatlands.

AB - Northern peatlands store 300–600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO2 and CH4 fluxes from northern peatlands using five land surface models that explicitly include representation of peatland processes. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, northern peatlands are projected to remain a net sink of CO2 and climate neutral for the next three centuries. A shift to a net CO2 source and a substantial increase in CH4 emissions are projected under RCP8.5, which could exacerbate global warming by 0.21ÃÂ°C (range, 0.09–0.49ÃÂ°C) by the year 2300. The true warming impact of peatlands might be higher owing to processes not simulated by the models and direct anthropogenic disturbance. Our study highlights the importance of understanding how future warming might trigger high carbon losses from northern peatlands.

UR - https://hdl.handle.net/1959.7/uws:71199

U2 - 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.008

DO - 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.008

M3 - Article

SN - 2590-3330

VL - 5

SP - 86

EP - 97

JO - One Earth

JF - One Earth

IS - 1

ER -

A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands

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