A study of the dynamic behaviour of daily load curve for short term predictions

Electricity demand is one of the most controversial topics in Sri Lanka as the price of electricity increases rapidly, due to the scarcity of electricity generation sources to meet the demand. Fulfilling the peak demand, starting around 6.30 pm and ending around 9.30 pm, of the load curve is identified as the most crucial aspect that needs to be addressed. During this period, high cost power plants are used to generate electricity, which cannot be met using other low cost options such as hydro power. The Ceylon Electricity Board has to bear a huge loss in order to accommodate this high demand at peak times. Therefore, it is an essential task for a developing country as Sri Lanka to consider developing strategically approached mechanisms to provide a reliable electricity supply at an affordable price. This research focuses on studying the statistical nature of the daily load curve for different consumer categories and for different days of the week to capture the dynamics of electricity usage. An extensive literature is carried out to identify similar research and methodologies used to arrive at a solution by dynamically predicting the daily load curve and smoothing the peak using Demand Side Management strategies.