An application of vector error correction model to analyze the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in India's north-eastern region

Unlike crop specific productivity analysis, this study tries to analyse the impact of climate change and relevant variables on the overall agricultural productivity using panel data. Using Panel cointegration this study found a long run relationship among CPI, Khariff/Rabi maximum temperature, Fertilizer, GCA and annual rainfall. The cointegration relationship shows an inverse relationship of both Khariff and Rabi maximum temperature on the overall agricultural productivity, while rainfall has positive and significant impact. The expansion of area under cultivation is observed to have negative impact indicating the limitation of maintaining the productivity for extension to lesser productive areas. However, the vector error correction shows a remote lag inverse relation of rainfall on the current agricultural productivity.