An iterative framework for national scenario modelling for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The recently adopted global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are intended to catalyse implementation of sustainable development. Their success or failure will rely heavily upon national implementation. However, the SDGs represent a broad, integrated and complex agenda that will be very challenging for countries to implement. Over the past decade, scenario analysis has emerged as a method that is particularly well suited to sustainable development and has seen a rapid expansion in national development planning practice. It will be an invaluable tool for governments in formulating their national SDG strategies. However, despite its increased application, there is limited guidance available on the use of scenario modelling in national development planning. By undertaking a review of the recent best practice literature as well as 22 contemporary scenario modelling case studies, this paper draws out lessons learned and proposes an iterative framework for ex ante scenario modelling to support national SDG planning.