Climate change increases global risk to urban forests

Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez; Mark G. Tjoelker; Jonathan Lenoir; John B. Baumgartner; Linda J. Beaumont; David A. Nipperess; Sally A. Power; Benoît Richard; Paul D. Rymer; Rachael V. Gallagher

doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01465-8

Climate change increases global risk to urban forests

Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez, Mark G. Tjoelker, Jonathan Lenoir, John B. Baumgartner, Linda J. Beaumont, David A. Nipperess, Sally A. Power, Benoît Richard, Paul D. Rymer, Rachael V. Gallagher

Western Sydney University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Climate change threatens the health and survival of urban trees and the various benefits they deliver to urban inhabitants. Here, we show that 56% and 65% of species in 164 cities across 78 countries are currently exceeding temperature and precipitation conditions experienced in their geographic range, respectively. We assessed 3,129 tree and shrub species, using three metrics related to climate vulnerability: exposure, safety margin and risk. By 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0, 2,387 (76%) and 2,220 (70%) species will be at risk from projected changes in mean annual temperature and annual precipitation, respectively. Risk is predicted to be greatest in cities at low latitudes—such as New Delhi and Singapore—where all urban tree species are vulnerable to climate change. These findings aid the evaluation of the impacts of climate change to secure long-term benefits provided by urban forests.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	950-955
Number of pages	11
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	12
Issue number	10
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01465-8
Publication status	Published - 2022

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title = "Climate change increases global risk to urban forests",

abstract = "Climate change threatens the health and survival of urban trees and the various benefits they deliver to urban inhabitants. Here, we show that 56% and 65% of species in 164 cities across 78 countries are currently exceeding temperature and precipitation conditions experienced in their geographic range, respectively. We assessed 3,129 tree and shrub species, using three metrics related to climate vulnerability: exposure, safety margin and risk. By 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0, 2,387 (76%) and 2,220 (70%) species will be at risk from projected changes in mean annual temperature and annual precipitation, respectively. Risk is predicted to be greatest in cities at low latitudes—such as New Delhi and Singapore—where all urban tree species are vulnerable to climate change. These findings aid the evaluation of the impacts of climate change to secure long-term benefits provided by urban forests.",

author = "Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez and Tjoelker, {Mark G.} and Jonathan Lenoir and Baumgartner, {John B.} and Beaumont, {Linda J.} and Nipperess, {David A.} and Power, {Sally A.} and Beno{\^i}t Richard and Rymer, {Paul D.} and Gallagher, {Rachael V.}",

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doi = "10.1038/s41558-022-01465-8",

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T1 - Climate change increases global risk to urban forests

AU - Esperon-Rodriguez, Manuel

AU - Tjoelker, Mark G.

AU - Lenoir, Jonathan

AU - Baumgartner, John B.

AU - Beaumont, Linda J.

AU - Nipperess, David A.

AU - Power, Sally A.

AU - Richard, Benoît

AU - Rymer, Paul D.

AU - Gallagher, Rachael V.

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - Climate change threatens the health and survival of urban trees and the various benefits they deliver to urban inhabitants. Here, we show that 56% and 65% of species in 164 cities across 78 countries are currently exceeding temperature and precipitation conditions experienced in their geographic range, respectively. We assessed 3,129 tree and shrub species, using three metrics related to climate vulnerability: exposure, safety margin and risk. By 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0, 2,387 (76%) and 2,220 (70%) species will be at risk from projected changes in mean annual temperature and annual precipitation, respectively. Risk is predicted to be greatest in cities at low latitudes—such as New Delhi and Singapore—where all urban tree species are vulnerable to climate change. These findings aid the evaluation of the impacts of climate change to secure long-term benefits provided by urban forests.

AB - Climate change threatens the health and survival of urban trees and the various benefits they deliver to urban inhabitants. Here, we show that 56% and 65% of species in 164 cities across 78 countries are currently exceeding temperature and precipitation conditions experienced in their geographic range, respectively. We assessed 3,129 tree and shrub species, using three metrics related to climate vulnerability: exposure, safety margin and risk. By 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0, 2,387 (76%) and 2,220 (70%) species will be at risk from projected changes in mean annual temperature and annual precipitation, respectively. Risk is predicted to be greatest in cities at low latitudes—such as New Delhi and Singapore—where all urban tree species are vulnerable to climate change. These findings aid the evaluation of the impacts of climate change to secure long-term benefits provided by urban forests.

UR - https://hdl.handle.net/1959.7/uws:70098

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DO - 10.1038/s41558-022-01465-8

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VL - 12

SP - 950

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JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 10

ER -

Climate change increases global risk to urban forests

Abstract

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