Climate Vulnerability in Western Sydney

Western Sydney is at the frontline of Greater Sydney’s climate vulnerability. While natural hazards are an enduring feature of the broader Sydney region, their social impacts are unevenly distributed. In Western Sydney, historical issues of unequal development and systemic disadvantage have created conditions that heighten community vulnerability and limit adaptive capacity to climate change.

Vulnerability refers to the degree to which individuals and communities are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, the adverse impacts of climate change. It is not determined by hazards alone, but by the social, economic, and institutional conditions that shape people’s ability to prepare for, respond to, and recover from them. In Western Sydney, these conditions include lower household incomes, high rates of housing stress, and a greater proportion of renters and social housing tenants living in regions of high risk. These factors compound disadvantage, making socioeconomically marginalised populations more susceptible to climate-related harm than the Rest of Sydney, even when climate-induced hazards are a common threat across greater Sydney.

This paper draws on data from the Australian Climate Service’s (ACS) National Climate Risk Assessment (2025) and Australian Climate Social Vulnerability Index (ACSVI) to analyse the spatial distribution and drivers of vulnerability across Western Sydney. The findings reveal that the LGAs of Fairfield, Canterbury-Bankstown, Cumberland, Liverpool, and Campbelltown contain the highest concentrations of social vulnerability in Greater Sydney. These areas face overlapping pressures of exposure and disadvantage, making them key sites where the social dimensions of climate risk are most visible.

Vulnerability in Western Sydney is not inevitable but stems from the social and economic conditions that shape people’s daily lives. Decades of planning, policy, and investment decisions have entrenched inequalities in housing, income, and access to essential services, which impact the capacity for socioeconomically marginalised populations to prepare for or recover from hazards, particularly for low-income households and renters. Addressing climate risk, therefore, requires a structural shift to equity-based adaptation that tackles the root socioeconomic drivers of vulnerability. Western Sydney’s climate vulnerability is policy-shaped and therefore policy-solvable. Coordinated governance, equitable investment, and integration of climate risk into housing, infrastructure, and urban planning can ensure a safer, fairer, and more climate-resilient Greater Sydney.