Commodity futures pricing of carbon policy costs in construction projects

Purpose: Carbon emissions from construction projects have the potential to be commodity futures. However, the pricing problem remains challenging in commodity futures transactions of life cycle carbon policy costs (CPCs). Therefore, this study aims to develop a method for carbon futures pricing in construction projects. Design/methodology/approach: Firstly, a carbon futures pricing model is developed by calculating the net present value (NPV) of life cycle CPCs. This model includes five variables: policy pattern, boundary situation, carbon allowance, carbon price trend and discount rate. Then, an open building information modeling (OpenBIM) tool is developed to automate this model. Finally, a case building is used to validate the proposed method. Findings: The carbon allowance determines the positive or negative carbon futures value (CFV), resulting in losses or profits in futures trading. The carbon price trend is the most significant factor affecting CFV due to their exponential relationship. Furthermore, the carbon futures have dual attributes of assets and liabilities for discount rate selection. Originality/value: The NPV of the life cycle CPCs is considered the pricing benchmark of the CFV. This model also helps various stakeholders buy or sell CPCs of construction projects for investment or hedging under changing carbon policy. The OpenBIM application provides a transparent and automatic tool to help designers directly optimize the CFV.