COVID-19 in Ethiopia : a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death

Kefyalew Addis Alene; Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw; Dagnachew Muluye Fetene; Digsu N. Koye; Yohannes A. Melaku\; Hailay A. Yohannes Adama; Hailay Gesesew; Mulugeta Molla Birhanu; Akilew Awoke Adane; Muluken Dessalegn Muluneh; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Solomon Abrha; Atsede Aregay; Asnakew Achaw Ayele; Woldesellassie M. Bezabhe; Kidane Tadesse Gebremariam; Tesfaye Gebremedhin; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Lemlem Gebremichael; Ayele Bali Geleto; Habtamu Tilahun Kassahun; Getiye Dejenu Kibret; Cheru Tesem Leshargie; Alemayehu Mekonnen; Alemnesh H. Mirkuzie; Hassen Mohammed; Henok Getachew Tegegn; Azeb Gebresilassie Tesema; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Befikadu Legesse Wubishet

doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044606

COVID-19 in Ethiopia : a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death

Kefyalew Addis Alene, Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw, Dagnachew Muluye Fetene, Digsu N. Koye, Yohannes A. Melaku\, Hailay A. Yohannes Adama, Hailay Gesesew, Mulugeta Molla Birhanu, Akilew Awoke Adane, Muluken Dessalegn Muluneh, Berihun Assefa Dachew, Solomon Abrha, Atsede Aregay, Asnakew Achaw Ayele, Woldesellassie M. Bezabhe, Kidane Tadesse Gebremariam, Tesfaye Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin, Lemlem Gebremichael, Ayele Bali GeletoHabtamu Tilahun Kassahun, Getiye Dejenu Kibret, Cheru Tesem Leshargie, Alemayehu Mekonnen, Alemnesh H. Mirkuzie, Hassen Mohammed, Henok Getachew Tegegn, Azeb Gebresilassie Tesema, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Befikadu Legesse Wubishet

Western Sydney University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

19 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 has caused a global public health crisis affecting most countries, including Ethiopia, in various ways. This study maps the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. Methods: Thirty-eight potential indicators of vulnerability to COVID-19 infection, case severity and likelihood of death, identified based on a literature review and the availability of nationally representative data at a low geographic scale, were assembled from multiple sources for geospatial analysis. Geospatial analysis techniques were applied to produce maps showing the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death in Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 1 kmÃƒÂ—1 km. Results: This study showed that vulnerability to COVID-19 infection is likely to be high across most parts of Ethiopia, particularly in the Somali, Afar, Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions. The number of severe cases of COVID-19 infection requiring hospitalisation and intensive care unit admission is likely to be high across Amhara, most parts of Oromia and some parts of the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' Region. The risk of COVID-19-related death is high in the country's border regions, where public health preparedness for responding to COVID-19 is limited. Conclusion: This study revealed geographical differences in vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. The study offers maps that can guide the targeted interventions necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Ethiopia.

Original language	English
Article number	e044606
Number of pages	11
Journal	BMJ Open
Volume	11
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044606
Publication status	Published - 2021

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10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044606

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Alene, K. A., Gelaw, Y. A., Fetene, D. M., Koye, D. N., Melaku\, Y. A., Yohannes Adama, H. A., Gesesew, H., Birhanu, M. M., Adane, A. A., Muluneh, M. D., Dachew, B. A., Abrha, S., Aregay, A., Ayele, A. A., Bezabhe, W. M., Gebremariam, K. T., Gebremedhin, T., Gebremedhin, A. T., Gebremichael, L., ... Wubishet, B. L. (2021). COVID-19 in Ethiopia : a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death. BMJ Open, 11(2), Article e044606. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044606

@article{d34502cb041542e7a4a44efcc5229c81,

title = "COVID-19 in Ethiopia : a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death",

abstract = "Background: COVID-19 has caused a global public health crisis affecting most countries, including Ethiopia, in various ways. This study maps the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. Methods: Thirty-eight potential indicators of vulnerability to COVID-19 infection, case severity and likelihood of death, identified based on a literature review and the availability of nationally representative data at a low geographic scale, were assembled from multiple sources for geospatial analysis. Geospatial analysis techniques were applied to produce maps showing the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death in Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 1 km{\~A}ƒ{\^A}—1 km. Results: This study showed that vulnerability to COVID-19 infection is likely to be high across most parts of Ethiopia, particularly in the Somali, Afar, Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions. The number of severe cases of COVID-19 infection requiring hospitalisation and intensive care unit admission is likely to be high across Amhara, most parts of Oromia and some parts of the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' Region. The risk of COVID-19-related death is high in the country's border regions, where public health preparedness for responding to COVID-19 is limited. Conclusion: This study revealed geographical differences in vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. The study offers maps that can guide the targeted interventions necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Ethiopia.",

author = "Alene, {Kefyalew Addis} and Gelaw, {Yalemzewod Assefa} and Fetene, {Dagnachew Muluye} and Koye, {Digsu N.} and Melaku\, {Yohannes A.} and {Yohannes Adama}, {Hailay A.} and Hailay Gesesew and Birhanu, {Mulugeta Molla} and Adane, {Akilew Awoke} and Muluneh, {Muluken Dessalegn} and Dachew, {Berihun Assefa} and Solomon Abrha and Atsede Aregay and Ayele, {Asnakew Achaw} and Bezabhe, {Woldesellassie M.} and Gebremariam, {Kidane Tadesse} and Tesfaye Gebremedhin and Gebremedhin, {Amanuel Tesfay} and Lemlem Gebremichael and Geleto, {Ayele Bali} and Kassahun, {Habtamu Tilahun} and Kibret, {Getiye Dejenu} and Leshargie, {Cheru Tesem} and Alemayehu Mekonnen and Mirkuzie, {Alemnesh H.} and Hassen Mohammed and Tegegn, {Henok Getachew} and Tesema, {Azeb Gebresilassie} and Tesfay, {Fisaha Haile} and Wubishet, {Befikadu Legesse}",

year = "2021",

doi = "10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044606",

language = "English",

volume = "11",

journal = "BMJ Open",

issn = "2044-6055",

publisher = "BMJ Publishing Group",

number = "2",

}

Alene, KA, Gelaw, YA, Fetene, DM, Koye, DN, Melaku\, YA, Yohannes Adama, HA, Gesesew, H, Birhanu, MM, Adane, AA, Muluneh, MD, Dachew, BA, Abrha, S, Aregay, A, Ayele, AA, Bezabhe, WM, Gebremariam, KT, Gebremedhin, T, Gebremedhin, AT, Gebremichael, L, Geleto, AB, Kassahun, HT, Kibret, GD, Leshargie, CT, Mekonnen, A, Mirkuzie, AH, Mohammed, H, Tegegn, HG, Tesema, AG, Tesfay, FH & Wubishet, BL 2021, 'COVID-19 in Ethiopia : a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death', BMJ Open, vol. 11, no. 2, e044606. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044606

TY - JOUR

T1 - COVID-19 in Ethiopia : a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death

AU - Alene, Kefyalew Addis

AU - Gelaw, Yalemzewod Assefa

AU - Fetene, Dagnachew Muluye

AU - Koye, Digsu N.

AU - Melaku\, Yohannes A.

AU - Yohannes Adama, Hailay A.

AU - Gesesew, Hailay

AU - Birhanu, Mulugeta Molla

AU - Adane, Akilew Awoke

AU - Muluneh, Muluken Dessalegn

AU - Dachew, Berihun Assefa

AU - Abrha, Solomon

AU - Aregay, Atsede

AU - Ayele, Asnakew Achaw

AU - Bezabhe, Woldesellassie M.

AU - Gebremariam, Kidane Tadesse

AU - Gebremedhin, Tesfaye

AU - Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay

AU - Gebremichael, Lemlem

AU - Geleto, Ayele Bali

AU - Kassahun, Habtamu Tilahun

AU - Kibret, Getiye Dejenu

AU - Leshargie, Cheru Tesem

AU - Mekonnen, Alemayehu

AU - Mirkuzie, Alemnesh H.

AU - Mohammed, Hassen

AU - Tegegn, Henok Getachew

AU - Tesema, Azeb Gebresilassie

AU - Tesfay, Fisaha Haile

AU - Wubishet, Befikadu Legesse

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - Background: COVID-19 has caused a global public health crisis affecting most countries, including Ethiopia, in various ways. This study maps the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. Methods: Thirty-eight potential indicators of vulnerability to COVID-19 infection, case severity and likelihood of death, identified based on a literature review and the availability of nationally representative data at a low geographic scale, were assembled from multiple sources for geospatial analysis. Geospatial analysis techniques were applied to produce maps showing the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death in Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 1 kmÃƒÂ—1 km. Results: This study showed that vulnerability to COVID-19 infection is likely to be high across most parts of Ethiopia, particularly in the Somali, Afar, Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions. The number of severe cases of COVID-19 infection requiring hospitalisation and intensive care unit admission is likely to be high across Amhara, most parts of Oromia and some parts of the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' Region. The risk of COVID-19-related death is high in the country's border regions, where public health preparedness for responding to COVID-19 is limited. Conclusion: This study revealed geographical differences in vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. The study offers maps that can guide the targeted interventions necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Ethiopia.

AB - Background: COVID-19 has caused a global public health crisis affecting most countries, including Ethiopia, in various ways. This study maps the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. Methods: Thirty-eight potential indicators of vulnerability to COVID-19 infection, case severity and likelihood of death, identified based on a literature review and the availability of nationally representative data at a low geographic scale, were assembled from multiple sources for geospatial analysis. Geospatial analysis techniques were applied to produce maps showing the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death in Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 1 kmÃƒÂ—1 km. Results: This study showed that vulnerability to COVID-19 infection is likely to be high across most parts of Ethiopia, particularly in the Somali, Afar, Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions. The number of severe cases of COVID-19 infection requiring hospitalisation and intensive care unit admission is likely to be high across Amhara, most parts of Oromia and some parts of the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' Region. The risk of COVID-19-related death is high in the country's border regions, where public health preparedness for responding to COVID-19 is limited. Conclusion: This study revealed geographical differences in vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. The study offers maps that can guide the targeted interventions necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Ethiopia.

UR - http://hdl.handle.net/1959.7/uws:59837

U2 - 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044606

DO - 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044606

M3 - Article

SN - 2044-6055

VL - 11

JO - BMJ Open

JF - BMJ Open

IS - 2

M1 - e044606

ER -

COVID-19 in Ethiopia : a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death

Abstract

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