Crying wolf? Impact of the H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic on anticipated response to a future pandemic

Melanie R. Taylor, Garry J. Stevens, Kingsley E. Agho, Sheree A. Kable, Beverley Raphael

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    12 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    OBJECTIVE:To determine changes in public threat perception and anticipated compliance with health-protective behaviours in response to a future pandemic; using data collected before and after the H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Repeat cross-sectional computer-assisted telephone surveys with representative samples of the general New South Wales population in 2007 (2081 participants) and 2010 (2038 participants). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Perceived likelihood of a future pandemic in Australia; concern that respondents or their families would be affected; degree of change made to life because of the possibility of a pandemic; and willingness to comply with health-protective behaviours (to be vaccinated, to be isolated if necessary, and to wear a face mask). RESULTS: In 2007, 14.9% of the general population considered that an influenza pandemic would be highly likely to occur in future; this proportion rose to 42.8% in 2010 (odds ratio [OR], 4.96; 95% CI, 3.99-6.16; P < 0.001). Conversely, in the same period concern that respondents or their families would be directly affected by a future pandemic dropped from 45.5% to 32.5% (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.44-0.74; P < 0.001). Willingness to be vaccinated against influenza in a future pandemic decreased from 75.4% to 64.6% (OR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.55-0.86; P < 0.001). A general decrease in willingness to be vaccinated was noted across all age groups, most notably for those aged 35-44 years. CONCLUSIONS: Data collected before and after the H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic indicated significant shifts in public threat perception and anticipated response to a future pandemic. The H1N1 2009 pandemic has altered public perceptions of the probability of a pandemic in the future, but has left the public feeling less vulnerable. Shifts in perception have the potential to reduce future public compliance with health-protective measures, including critical elements of the public health response, such as vaccination.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)561-564
    Number of pages4
    JournalMedical Journal of Australia
    Volume197
    Issue number10
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2012

    Keywords

    • H1N1 influenza
    • disease management
    • disease outbreaks
    • pandemic planning
    • public health

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