Derivation and validation of risk scores to predict cerebrovascular mortality among incident peritoneal dialysis patients

Xiaoxue Zhang, Dahai Yu, Yamei Cai, Jin Shang, Rui Qin, Xing Tian, Zhanzheng Zhao, David Simmons

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background/Aims: Cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) is one of the leading causes of death in patients initialising peritoneal dialysis (PD). Currently there is no risk score to predict the future risk of CeVD on entry into PD. This study aimed to derive and validate a risk prediction model for CeVD mortality in 2 years after the initialisation of PD. Methods: All patients registered with the Henan Peritoneal Dialysis Registry (HPDR) between 2007 and 2014 were included. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was applied to derive the risk score. All accessible clinical measurements were screened as potential predictors. Internal validation through bootstrapping was applied to test the model performance. Results: The absolute risk of CeVD mortality was 2.9%. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, phosphate, and sodium concentrations were the strongest predictors of CeVD mortality in the final risk score. Good model discrimination with C statistics above 0.70 and calibration of agreed observed and predicted risks were identified in the model. Conclusion: The new risk score, developed and validated using clinical measurements that are accessible on entry into PD, could be used clinically to screen for patients at high risk of CeVD mortality. Such patients might benefit from therapies reducing the incidence of CeVD related events.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1141-1148
Number of pages8
JournalKidney and Blood Pressure Research
Volume43
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018

Open Access - Access Right Statement

© 2018 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger AG, Basel www.karger.com/kbr. This article is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND) (http://www.karger.com/Services/OpenAccessLicense). Usage and distribution for commercial purposes as well as any distribution of modified material requires written permission.

Keywords

  • cerebrovascular disease
  • mortality
  • peritoneal dialysis
  • risk assessment

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