Design flood estimation for ungauged catchments in Eastern NSW : evaluation of the Probabilistic Rational Method

James Pirozzi; Mohammad Ashraf; Ataur Rahman; Khaled Haddad

Design flood estimation for ungauged catchments in Eastern NSW : evaluation of the Probabilistic Rational Method

James Pirozzi, Mohammad Ashraf, Ataur Rahman, Khaled Haddad

School of Engineering, Design & Built Environment

Research output: Chapter in Book / Conference Paper › Conference Paper › peer-review

Abstract

Design flood estimation in ungauged catchments is a common problem in hydrological design. Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR) 1987 recommends the Probabilistic Rational Method (PRM) for South Eastern Australia including Eastern NSW. As part of the current revision of ARR, this paper examines the applicability of the PRM for eastern NSW. It also compares PRM estimates with the Quantile Regression Technique (QRT) based on ordinary least squares. Independent testing showed that the PRM provided acceptable estimates, with a median relative error of 32%, while the QRT produced more accurate estimates with a median relative error of 25%. Both the methods require the data of two independent variables, catchment area and design rainfall intensity, which are relatively easy to obtain. Based on the findings of this study, QRT is found to be the preferable method over the PRM for eastern NSW, as it generally provides more accurate flood quantile estimates and does not require use of the runoff coefficient map.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of H2009 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: Adapting to Change, Newcastle, Australia, 30 November - 3 December 2009, Newcastle, Australia
Publisher	Engineers Australia
Pages	805-816
Number of pages	12
Publication status	Published - 2009
Event	Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium - Duration: 19 Nov 2012 → …

Conference

Conference	Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium
Period	19/11/12 → …

Cite this

Pirozzi, J., Ashraf, M., Rahman, A., & Haddad, K. (2009). Design flood estimation for ungauged catchments in Eastern NSW : evaluation of the Probabilistic Rational Method. In Proceedings of H2009 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: Adapting to Change, Newcastle, Australia, 30 November - 3 December 2009, Newcastle, Australia (pp. 805-816). Engineers Australia.

Pirozzi, James ; Ashraf, Mohammad ; Rahman, Ataur et al. / Design flood estimation for ungauged catchments in Eastern NSW : evaluation of the Probabilistic Rational Method. Proceedings of H2009 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: Adapting to Change, Newcastle, Australia, 30 November - 3 December 2009, Newcastle, Australia. Engineers Australia, 2009. pp. 805-816

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title = "Design flood estimation for ungauged catchments in Eastern NSW : evaluation of the Probabilistic Rational Method",

abstract = "Design flood estimation in ungauged catchments is a common problem in hydrological design. Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR) 1987 recommends the Probabilistic Rational Method (PRM) for South Eastern Australia including Eastern NSW. As part of the current revision of ARR, this paper examines the applicability of the PRM for eastern NSW. It also compares PRM estimates with the Quantile Regression Technique (QRT) based on ordinary least squares. Independent testing showed that the PRM provided acceptable estimates, with a median relative error of 32%, while the QRT produced more accurate estimates with a median relative error of 25%. Both the methods require the data of two independent variables, catchment area and design rainfall intensity, which are relatively easy to obtain. Based on the findings of this study, QRT is found to be the preferable method over the PRM for eastern NSW, as it generally provides more accurate flood quantile estimates and does not require use of the runoff coefficient map.",

author = "James Pirozzi and Mohammad Ashraf and Ataur Rahman and Khaled Haddad",

year = "2009",

language = "English",

pages = "805--816",

booktitle = "Proceedings of H2009 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: Adapting to Change, Newcastle, Australia, 30 November - 3 December 2009, Newcastle, Australia",

publisher = "Engineers Australia",

note = "Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium ; Conference date: 19-11-2012",

}

Pirozzi, J, Ashraf, M, Rahman, A & Haddad, K 2009, Design flood estimation for ungauged catchments in Eastern NSW : evaluation of the Probabilistic Rational Method. in Proceedings of H2009 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: Adapting to Change, Newcastle, Australia, 30 November - 3 December 2009, Newcastle, Australia. Engineers Australia, pp. 805-816, Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, 19/11/12.

Design flood estimation for ungauged catchments in Eastern NSW : evaluation of the Probabilistic Rational Method. / Pirozzi, James; Ashraf, Mohammad; Rahman, Ataur et al.
Proceedings of H2009 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: Adapting to Change, Newcastle, Australia, 30 November - 3 December 2009, Newcastle, Australia. Engineers Australia, 2009. p. 805-816.

Research output: Chapter in Book / Conference Paper › Conference Paper › peer-review

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AB - Design flood estimation in ungauged catchments is a common problem in hydrological design. Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR) 1987 recommends the Probabilistic Rational Method (PRM) for South Eastern Australia including Eastern NSW. As part of the current revision of ARR, this paper examines the applicability of the PRM for eastern NSW. It also compares PRM estimates with the Quantile Regression Technique (QRT) based on ordinary least squares. Independent testing showed that the PRM provided acceptable estimates, with a median relative error of 32%, while the QRT produced more accurate estimates with a median relative error of 25%. Both the methods require the data of two independent variables, catchment area and design rainfall intensity, which are relatively easy to obtain. Based on the findings of this study, QRT is found to be the preferable method over the PRM for eastern NSW, as it generally provides more accurate flood quantile estimates and does not require use of the runoff coefficient map.

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BT - Proceedings of H2009 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: Adapting to Change, Newcastle, Australia, 30 November - 3 December 2009, Newcastle, Australia

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Design flood estimation for ungauged catchments in Eastern NSW : evaluation of the Probabilistic Rational Method

Abstract

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