Deterministic and stochastic models for wheat/grain production in Australia

The main objective of the study is to construct mathematical models using data from 1960 to 2000, collected by Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE), to predict yield of wheat in Australia, under varying assumptions. We have considered two approaches, namely a deterministic approach and a stochastic approach in constructing mathematical models for the yield of Australian wheat/grain yield for prediction purposes. Under the deterministic approach we developed a modified quadratic logistic model and some simulations were done using S-Plus. As an alternative, we introduced a random component, to take into account the large differences in the approaches taken to wheat and grain production in Australia. In applying this stochastic approach, we used a log-normal diffusion process.