Development of a log-quadratic model to describe microbial inactivation, illustrated by thermal inactivation of Clostridium botulinum

In the commercial food industry, demonstration of microbiological safety and thermal process equivalence often involves a mathematical framework that assumes log-linear inactivation kinetics and invokes concepts of decimal reduction time (DT), z values, and accumulated lethality. However, many microbes, particularly spores, exhibit inactivation kinetics that are not log linear. This has led to alternative modeling approaches, such as the biphasic and Weibull models, that relax strong log-linear assumptions. Using a statistical framework, we developed a novel log-quadratic model, which approximates the biphasic and Weibull models and provides additional physiological interpretability. As a statistical linear model, the log-quadratic model is relatively simple to fit and straightforwardly provides confidence intervals for its fitted values. It allows a DT-like value to be derived, even from data that exhibit obvious "tailing." We also showed how existing models of non-log-linear microbial inactivation, such as the Weibull model, can fit into a statistical linear model framework that dramatically simplifies their solution. We applied the log-quadratic model to thermal inactivation data for the spore-forming bacterium Clostridium botulinum and evaluated its merits compared with those of popular previously described approaches. The log-quadratic model was used as the basis of a secondary model that can capture the dependence of microbial inactivation kinetics on temperature. This model, in turn, was linked to models of spore inactivation of Sapru et al. and Rodriguez et al. that posit different physiological states for spores within a population. We believe that the log-quadratic model provides a useful framework in which to test vitalistic and mechanistic hypotheses of inactivation by thermal and other processes.