Development of Quantile Regression Technique for Queensland for Regional Flood Estimation

Ridwan S. M. H. Rafi; Sadia T. Mim; Hasan A. Rahaman; Nadia Afrin; Monisha Anindita; Ataur Rahman

doi:10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_13

Development of Quantile Regression Technique for Queensland for Regional Flood Estimation

Ridwan S. M. H. Rafi
, Sadia T. Mim
, Hasan A. Rahaman
, Nadia Afrin
, Monisha Anindita
, Ataur Rahman

School of Engineering

North South University
Ahsanullah University of Science and Technology
Paschim Morichya
Independent Researcher

Research output: Chapter in Book / Conference Paper › Chapter › peer-review

Abstract

Queensland state in Australia often suffers from devastating floods. To design flood-safe infrastructure at ungauged catchments, regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) method is adopted, which transfers flood characteristics from gauged catchments to ungagged site. This study evaluates quantile regression technique (QRT) for 10-year (Q₁₀) and 50-year (Q₅₀) return periods. Diagnostic plots confirmed that both models satisfied the assumptions of ordinary least squares, with residuals randomly distributed and over 90% within ±2, indicating stable variance and approximate normality. The Q₁₀ model demonstrated stronger predictive skill, with an R² of 0.71 compared to 0.61 for Q₅₀. Error analysis showed lower mean and median absolute relative errors for Q₁₀ (39.41% and 26.00%) than for Q₅₀ (54.93% and 30.92%), along with reduced variability, highlighting greater reliability at shorter return periods. Further study should include a higher number of predictor variables, larger data set and non-linear methods to develop and test RFFA models.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025
Editors	Ataur Rahman, Dharma Hagare, Zuhaib Siddiqui, Taha B. M. J. Ouarda, Muhammad Muhitur Rahman
Place of Publication	Switzerland
Publisher	Springer
Pages	145-155
Number of pages	11
ISBN (Electronic)	9783032187086
ISBN (Print)	9783032187079
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_13
Publication status	Published - 2026
Event	International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering - Sydney, Australia Duration: 19 Nov 2025 → 21 Nov 2025 Conference number: 4th

Publication series

Name	Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering
Volume	822 LNCE
ISSN (Print)	2366-2557
ISSN (Electronic)	2366-2565

Conference

Conference	International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering
Abbreviated title	iCWEE
Country/Territory	Australia
City	Sydney
Period	19/11/25 → 21/11/25

Keywords

ARR
Floods
Queensland
Regression analysis
validation

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_13

Cite this

Rafi, R. S. M. H., Mim, S. T., Rahaman, H. A., Afrin, N., Anindita, M., & Rahman, A. (2026). Development of Quantile Regression Technique for Queensland for Regional Flood Estimation. In A. Rahman, D. Hagare, Z. Siddiqui, T. B. M. J. Ouarda, & M. Muhitur Rahman (Eds.), 4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025 (pp. 145-155). (Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering; Vol. 822 LNCE). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_13

Rafi, Ridwan S. M. H. ; Mim, Sadia T. ; Rahaman, Hasan A. et al. / Development of Quantile Regression Technique for Queensland for Regional Flood Estimation. 4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025. editor / Ataur Rahman ; Dharma Hagare ; Zuhaib Siddiqui ; Taha B. M. J. Ouarda ; Muhammad Muhitur Rahman. Switzerland : Springer, 2026. pp. 145-155 (Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering).

@inbook{b2142eaceed84a58a80005cff226546e,

title = "Development of Quantile Regression Technique for Queensland for Regional Flood Estimation",

abstract = "Queensland state in Australia often suffers from devastating floods. To design flood-safe infrastructure at ungauged catchments, regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) method is adopted, which transfers flood characteristics from gauged catchments to ungagged site. This study evaluates quantile regression technique (QRT) for 10-year (Q10) and 50-year (Q50) return periods. Diagnostic plots confirmed that both models satisfied the assumptions of ordinary least squares, with residuals randomly distributed and over 90\% within ±2, indicating stable variance and approximate normality. The Q10 model demonstrated stronger predictive skill, with an R2 of 0.71 compared to 0.61 for Q50. Error analysis showed lower mean and median absolute relative errors for Q10 (39.41\% and 26.00\%) than for Q50 (54.93\% and 30.92\%), along with reduced variability, highlighting greater reliability at shorter return periods. Further study should include a higher number of predictor variables, larger data set and non-linear methods to develop and test RFFA models.",

keywords = "ARR, Floods, Queensland, Regression analysis, validation",

author = "Rafi, \{Ridwan S. M. H.\} and Mim, \{Sadia T.\} and Rahaman, \{Hasan A.\} and Nadia Afrin and Monisha Anindita and Ataur Rahman",

year = "2026",

doi = "10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6\_13",

language = "English",

isbn = "9783032187079",

series = "Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering",

publisher = "Springer",

pages = "145--155",

editor = "Ataur Rahman and Dharma Hagare and Zuhaib Siddiqui and Ouarda, \{Taha B. M. J.\} and \{Muhitur Rahman\}, Muhammad",

booktitle = "4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025",

note = "International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering, iCWEE ; Conference date: 19-11-2025 Through 21-11-2025",

}

Rafi, RSMH, Mim, ST, Rahaman, HA, Afrin, N, Anindita, M & Rahman, A 2026, Development of Quantile Regression Technique for Queensland for Regional Flood Estimation. in A Rahman, D Hagare, Z Siddiqui, TBMJ Ouarda & M Muhitur Rahman (eds), 4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025. Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, vol. 822 LNCE, Springer, Switzerland, pp. 145-155, International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering, Sydney, Australia, 19/11/25. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_13

Development of Quantile Regression Technique for Queensland for Regional Flood Estimation. / Rafi, Ridwan S. M. H.; Mim, Sadia T.; Rahaman, Hasan A. et al.
4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025. ed. / Ataur Rahman; Dharma Hagare; Zuhaib Siddiqui; Taha B. M. J. Ouarda; Muhammad Muhitur Rahman. Switzerland: Springer, 2026. p. 145-155 (Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering; Vol. 822 LNCE).

Research output: Chapter in Book / Conference Paper › Chapter › peer-review

TY - CHAP

T1 - Development of Quantile Regression Technique for Queensland for Regional Flood Estimation

AU - Rafi, Ridwan S. M. H.

AU - Mim, Sadia T.

AU - Rahaman, Hasan A.

AU - Afrin, Nadia

AU - Anindita, Monisha

AU - Rahman, Ataur

N1 - Conference code: 4th

PY - 2026

Y1 - 2026

N2 - Queensland state in Australia often suffers from devastating floods. To design flood-safe infrastructure at ungauged catchments, regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) method is adopted, which transfers flood characteristics from gauged catchments to ungagged site. This study evaluates quantile regression technique (QRT) for 10-year (Q10) and 50-year (Q50) return periods. Diagnostic plots confirmed that both models satisfied the assumptions of ordinary least squares, with residuals randomly distributed and over 90% within ±2, indicating stable variance and approximate normality. The Q10 model demonstrated stronger predictive skill, with an R2 of 0.71 compared to 0.61 for Q50. Error analysis showed lower mean and median absolute relative errors for Q10 (39.41% and 26.00%) than for Q50 (54.93% and 30.92%), along with reduced variability, highlighting greater reliability at shorter return periods. Further study should include a higher number of predictor variables, larger data set and non-linear methods to develop and test RFFA models.

AB - Queensland state in Australia often suffers from devastating floods. To design flood-safe infrastructure at ungauged catchments, regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) method is adopted, which transfers flood characteristics from gauged catchments to ungagged site. This study evaluates quantile regression technique (QRT) for 10-year (Q10) and 50-year (Q50) return periods. Diagnostic plots confirmed that both models satisfied the assumptions of ordinary least squares, with residuals randomly distributed and over 90% within ±2, indicating stable variance and approximate normality. The Q10 model demonstrated stronger predictive skill, with an R2 of 0.71 compared to 0.61 for Q50. Error analysis showed lower mean and median absolute relative errors for Q10 (39.41% and 26.00%) than for Q50 (54.93% and 30.92%), along with reduced variability, highlighting greater reliability at shorter return periods. Further study should include a higher number of predictor variables, larger data set and non-linear methods to develop and test RFFA models.

KW - ARR

KW - Floods

KW - Queensland

KW - Regression analysis

KW - validation

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105031885675

UR - https://go.openathens.net/redirector/westernsydney.edu.au?url=https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_13

U2 - 10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_13

DO - 10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_13

M3 - Chapter

AN - SCOPUS:105031885675

SN - 9783032187079

T3 - Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering

SP - 145

EP - 155

BT - 4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025

A2 - Rahman, Ataur

A2 - Hagare, Dharma

A2 - Siddiqui, Zuhaib

A2 - Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

A2 - Muhitur Rahman, Muhammad

PB - Springer

CY - Switzerland

T2 - International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering

Y2 - 19 November 2025 through 21 November 2025

ER -

Rafi RSMH, Mim ST, Rahaman HA, Afrin N, Anindita M, Rahman A. Development of Quantile Regression Technique for Queensland for Regional Flood Estimation. In Rahman A, Hagare D, Siddiqui Z, Ouarda TBMJ, Muhitur Rahman M, editors, 4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025. Switzerland: Springer. 2026. p. 145-155. (Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering). doi: 10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_13

Development of Quantile Regression Technique for Queensland for Regional Flood Estimation

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Keywords

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