Did weekly economic index and volatility index impact US food sales during the first year of the pandemic?

Narasingha Das; Partha Gangopadhyay

Did weekly economic index and volatility index impact US food sales during the first year of the pandemic?

Western Sydney University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

We explore the impacts of economic and financial dislocations caused by COVID-19 pandemic shocks on food sales in the United States from January 2020 to January 2021. We use the US weekly economic index (WEI) to measure economic dislocations and the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index (VIX) to capture the broader stock market dislocations. We validate the NARDL model by testing a battery of models using the autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) methodology (ARDL, NARDL, and QARDL specifications). Our study postulates that an increase in WEI has a significant negative long-term effect on food sales, whereas a decrease in WEI has no statistically significant (long-run) effect. Thus, policy responses that ignore asymmetric effects and hidden cointegration may fail to promote food security during pandemics.

Original language	English
Article number	57
Number of pages	23
Journal	Financial Innovation
Volume	9
Issue number	1
Publication status	Published - Dec 2023

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Cite this

@article{4b6e8a22ce2648d1a5ac2e61345c6fcc,

title = "Did weekly economic index and volatility index impact US food sales during the first year of the pandemic?",

abstract = "We explore the impacts of economic and financial dislocations caused by COVID-19 pandemic shocks on food sales in the United States from January 2020 to January 2021. We use the US weekly economic index (WEI) to measure economic dislocations and the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index (VIX) to capture the broader stock market dislocations. We validate the NARDL model by testing a battery of models using the autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) methodology (ARDL, NARDL, and QARDL specifications). Our study postulates that an increase in WEI has a significant negative long-term effect on food sales, whereas a decrease in WEI has no statistically significant (long-run) effect. Thus, policy responses that ignore asymmetric effects and hidden cointegration may fail to promote food security during pandemics.",

author = "Narasingha Das and Partha Gangopadhyay",

year = "2023",

month = dec,

language = "English",

volume = "9",

journal = "Financial Innovation",

issn = "2199-4730",