Direct and indirect land-use change as prospective climate change indicators for peri-urban development transitions

With urban areas responsible for a significant share of total anthropogenic emissions, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to land-use change (LUC) induced by peri-urban (PU) development have the potential to be considerable. Despite this, there is little research into the transition from PU cropland to housing in terms of contribution to global warming. This paper presents a cross-sectoral integrative method for prospective climate change evaluation of PU LUC. Specifically, direct LUC (dLUC) GHG emissions from converting PU cropland to greenfield housing were examined. Additionally, GHG emissions due to displaced crop production inducing indirect LUC (iLUC) elsewhere were assessed. GHG impacts of dLUC and iLUC were each determined to be approximately 8 per cent of total GHG emissions due to a greenfield housing development displacing PU cropland. This magnitude of dLUC and iLUC emissions suggests that both have importance in future land-use decision making with respect to PU environments.