Divergent responses of fire to recent warming and drying across south-eastern Australia

Ross Bradstock, Trent Penman, Matthias Boer, Owen Price, Hamish Clarke

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    83 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The response of fire to climate change may vary across fuel types characteristic of differing vegetation types (i.e. litter vs. grass). Models of fire under climatic change capture these differing potential responses to varying degrees. Across south-eastern Australia, an elevation in the severity of weather conditions conducive to fire has been measured in recent decades. We examined trends in area burned (1975-2009) to determine if a corresponding increase in fire had occurred across the diverse range of ecosystems found in this part of the continent. We predicted that an increase in fire, due to climatic warming and drying, was more likely to have occurred in moist, temperate forests near the coast than in arid and semiarid woodlands of the interior, due to inherent contrasts in the respective dominant fuel types (woody litter vs. herbaceous fuels). Significant warming (i.e. increased temperature and number of hot days) and drying (i.e. negative precipitation anomaly, number of days with low humidity) occurred across most of the 32 Bioregions examined. The results were mostly consistent with predictions, with an increase in area burned in seven of eight forest Bioregions, whereas area burned either declined (two) or did not change significantly (nine) in drier woodland Bioregions. In 12 woodland Bioregions, data were insufficient for analysis of temporal trends in fire. Increases in fire attributable mostly to warming or drying were confined to three Bioregions. In the remainder, such increases were mostly unrelated to warming or drying trends and therefore may be due to other climate effects not explored (e.g. lightning ignitions) or possible anthropogenic influences. Projections of future fire must therefore not only account for responses of different fuel systems to climatic change but also the wider range of ecological and human effects on interactions between fire and vegetation.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1412-1428
    Number of pages17
    JournalGlobal Change Biology
    Volume20
    Issue number5
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2014

    Fingerprint

    Dive into the research topics of 'Divergent responses of fire to recent warming and drying across south-eastern Australia'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

    Cite this