Divorce and the cost of housing : evidence from Iran

Divorce trend in Iran has become a serious social concern that is suspected of being influenced by rising housing costs in an oil-based economy. Iran has the highest growth rate of divorce among Islamic countries in the Middle East and North Africa region. Using data from 30 provinces of Iran from 2002 to 2010, this paper examines the relationship between housing costs (house prices and rents) and divorce rate, controlling for other macroeconomic variables such as unemployment, inflation, and education in addition to regional, cultural, traditional, and conventional attitudes toward divorce. By applying panel fixed-effects and dynamic generalized methods of moments methods, our results suggest that increases in housing costs erode marital stability in Iran. Our main results are also supported when we focus on the shocks in housing costs, using the Vector autoregressive based impulse response and variance decomposition analyses of divorce rates at the national level from 1982 to 2010.