Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe

Dagmar Schröter; Wolfgang Cramer; Rik Leemans; I. Colin Prentice; Miguel B. Araújo; Nigel W. Arnell; Alberte Bondeau; Harald Bugmann; Timothy R. Carter; Carlos A. Gracia; Anne C. De La Vega-Leinert; Markus Erhard; Frank Ewert; Margaret Glendining; Joanna I. House; Susanna Kankaanpää; Richard J.T. Klein; Sandra Lavorel; Marcus Lindner; Marc J. Metzger; Jeannette Meyer; Timothy D. Mitchell; Isabelle Reginster; Mark Rounsevell; Santi Sabaté; Stephen Sitch; Ben Smith; Jo Smith; Pete Smith; Martin T. Sykes; Kirsten Thonicke; Wilfried Thuiller; Gill Tuck; Sönke Zaehle; Bärbel Zierl

doi:10.1126/science.1115233

Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe

Dagmar Schröter
, Wolfgang Cramer
, Rik Leemans
, I. Colin Prentice
, Miguel B. Araújo
, Nigel W. Arnell
, Alberte Bondeau
, Harald Bugmann
, Timothy R. Carter
, Carlos A. Gracia
, Anne C. De La Vega-Leinert
, Markus Erhard
, Frank Ewert
, Margaret Glendining
, Joanna I. House
, Susanna Kankaanpää
, Richard J.T. Klein
, Sandra Lavorel
, Marcus Lindner
, Marc J. Metzger

Jeannette Meyer, Timothy D. Mitchell, Isabelle Reginster, Mark Rounsevell, Santi Sabaté, Stephen Sitch, Ben Smith, Jo Smith, Pete Smith, Martin T. Sykes, Kirsten Thonicke, Wilfried Thuiller, Gill Tuck, Sönke Zaehle, Bärbel Zierl

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Harvard University
Wageningen University & Research
University of Bristol
University of Oxford
CSIC - Biological Mission of Galicia
University of Southampton
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich
Finnish Environment Institute
University of Barcelona
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Rothamsted Research
Université Joseph Fourier
CNRS
European Forest Institute
University of East Anglia
Université catholique de Louvain
Lund University
University of Aberdeen
South African National Biodiversity Institute

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1453 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, ''surplus land'' for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1333-1337
Number of pages	5
Journal	Science
Volume	310
Issue number	5752
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1115233 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1115233
Publication status	Published - 2005
Externally published	Yes

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

climatic changes
ecosystems
Europe

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Schröter, D., Cramer, W., Leemans, R., Prentice, I. C., Araújo, M. B., Arnell, N. W., Bondeau, A., Bugmann, H., Carter, T. R., Gracia, C. A., De La Vega-Leinert, A. C., Erhard, M., Ewert, F., Glendining, M., House, J. I., Kankaanpää, S., Klein, R. J. T., Lavorel, S., Lindner, M., ... Zierl, B. (2005). Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science, 310(5752), 1333-1337. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1115233, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1115233

@article{e62abb6d484d4c0aa1ee47b383d20610,

title = "Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe",

abstract = "Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, ''surplus land'' for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.",

keywords = "climatic changes, ecosystems, Europe",

author = "Dagmar Schr{\"o}ter and Wolfgang Cramer and Rik Leemans and Prentice, \{I. Colin\} and Ara{\'u}jo, \{Miguel B.\} and Arnell, \{Nigel W.\} and Alberte Bondeau and Harald Bugmann and Carter, \{Timothy R.\} and Gracia, \{Carlos A.\} and \{De La Vega-Leinert\}, \{Anne C.\} and Markus Erhard and Frank Ewert and Margaret Glendining and House, \{Joanna I.\} and Susanna Kankaanp{\"a}{\"a} and Klein, \{Richard J.T.\} and Sandra Lavorel and Marcus Lindner and Metzger, \{Marc J.\} and Jeannette Meyer and Mitchell, \{Timothy D.\} and Isabelle Reginster and Mark Rounsevell and Santi Sabat{\'e} and Stephen Sitch and Ben Smith and Jo Smith and Pete Smith and Sykes, \{Martin T.\} and Kirsten Thonicke and Wilfried Thuiller and Gill Tuck and S{\"o}nke Zaehle and B{\"a}rbel Zierl",

year = "2005",

doi = "10.1126/science.1115233",

language = "English",

volume = "310",

pages = "1333--1337",

journal = "Science",

issn = "0036-8075",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

number = "5752",

}

Schröter, D, Cramer, W, Leemans, R, Prentice, IC, Araújo, MB, Arnell, NW, Bondeau, A, Bugmann, H, Carter, TR, Gracia, CA, De La Vega-Leinert, AC, Erhard, M, Ewert, F, Glendining, M, House, JI, Kankaanpää, S, Klein, RJT, Lavorel, S, Lindner, M, Metzger, MJ, Meyer, J, Mitchell, TD, Reginster, I, Rounsevell, M, Sabaté, S, Sitch, S, Smith, B, Smith, J, Smith, P, Sykes, MT, Thonicke, K, Thuiller, W, Tuck, G, Zaehle, S & Zierl, B 2005, 'Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe', Science, vol. 310, no. 5752, pp. 1333-1337. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1115233, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1115233

TY - JOUR

T1 - Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe

AU - Schröter, Dagmar

AU - Cramer, Wolfgang

AU - Leemans, Rik

AU - Prentice, I. Colin

AU - Araújo, Miguel B.

AU - Arnell, Nigel W.

AU - Bondeau, Alberte

AU - Bugmann, Harald

AU - Carter, Timothy R.

AU - Gracia, Carlos A.

AU - De La Vega-Leinert, Anne C.

AU - Erhard, Markus

AU - Ewert, Frank

AU - Glendining, Margaret

AU - House, Joanna I.

AU - Kankaanpää, Susanna

AU - Klein, Richard J.T.

AU - Lavorel, Sandra

AU - Lindner, Marcus

AU - Metzger, Marc J.

AU - Meyer, Jeannette

AU - Mitchell, Timothy D.

AU - Reginster, Isabelle

AU - Rounsevell, Mark

AU - Sabaté, Santi

AU - Sitch, Stephen

AU - Smith, Ben

AU - Smith, Jo

AU - Smith, Pete

AU - Sykes, Martin T.

AU - Thonicke, Kirsten

AU - Thuiller, Wilfried

AU - Tuck, Gill

AU - Zaehle, Sönke

AU - Zierl, Bärbel

PY - 2005

Y1 - 2005

N2 - Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, ''surplus land'' for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.

AB - Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, ''surplus land'' for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.

KW - climatic changes

KW - ecosystems

KW - Europe

UR - http://handle.westernsydney.edu.au:8081/1959.7/uws:48571

U2 - 10.1126/science.1115233

DO - 10.1126/science.1115233

M3 - Article

C2 - 16254151

AN - SCOPUS:28144447574

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 310

SP - 1333

EP - 1337

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 5752

ER -

Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

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