Effect of onset of type 2 diabetes on risks of cardiovascular disease and heart failure among New Zealanders with impaired glucose tolerance over 25 years : tapered-matched landmark analysis

Dahai Yu; Bingjie Qu; Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu; Karen Pickering; John Baker; Richard Cutfield; Yamei Cai; Brandon J. Orr-Walker; Gerhard Sundborn; Zhanzheng Zhao; David Simmons

doi:10.1186/s12933-023-01871-y

Effect of onset of type 2 diabetes on risks of cardiovascular disease and heart failure among New Zealanders with impaired glucose tolerance over 25 years : tapered-matched landmark analysis

Dahai Yu, Bingjie Qu, Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu, Karen Pickering, John Baker, Richard Cutfield, Yamei Cai, Brandon J. Orr-Walker, Gerhard Sundborn, Zhanzheng Zhao, David Simmons

Western Sydney University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to examine the association between the incident onset of T2DM and 5- and 10-year risks of CVD and HF in people with IGT identified in primary care in South and West Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) between 1994 and 2019. Methods: We compared CVD and HF risks in patients with IGT and with/without T2D newly diagnosed within the exposure window (1–5 years). Tapered matching and landmark analysis (to account for immortal bias) were used to control for potential effects of known confounders. Results: Among 26,794 patients enrolled with IGT, 845 had T2D newly diagnosed within 5 years from enrolment (landmark date) and 15,452 did not have T2D diagnosed. Patients progressing to T2D (vs. those not progressing) had a similar 5-year risk for CVD (hazard ratio 1.19; 95% CI 0.61–2.32) but significantly higher 10-year risk of CVD (2.45(1.40–4.29)), 5-year risk of HF (1.94(1.20–3.12)) and 10-year risk of HF (2.84(1.83–4.39). The association between the onset of T2D and risk of 10-year risk of CVD, 5-year and 10-year risk of HF was more likely among men, the socioeconomically deprived, those currently smoking, patients with higher metabolic measures and/or those with lower renal function. Patients of NZ European ethnicity had a lower 10-year risk of CVD. Conclusions: The study suggests that the diagnosis of T2D mediates the risk of CVD and HF in people with IGT. The development of risk scores to identify and better manage individuals with IGT at high risk of T2D is warranted.

Original language	English
Article number	163
Number of pages	13
Journal	Cardiovascular Diabetology
Volume	22
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1186/s12933-023-01871-y
Publication status	Published - Dec 2023

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© 2023, The Author(s).

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Notes

WIP in RD

Keywords

Heart failure
Type 2 diabetes
Landmark analysis
Cardiovascular diseases
Impaired glucose tolerance
Tapered matching

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This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1186/s12933-023-01871-y

Cite this

Yu, D., Qu, B., Osuagwu, U. L., Pickering, K., Baker, J., Cutfield, R., Cai, Y., Orr-Walker, B. J., Sundborn, G., Zhao, Z., & Simmons, D. (2023). Effect of onset of type 2 diabetes on risks of cardiovascular disease and heart failure among New Zealanders with impaired glucose tolerance over 25 years : tapered-matched landmark analysis. Cardiovascular Diabetology, 22(1), Article 163. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12933-023-01871-y

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title = "Effect of onset of type 2 diabetes on risks of cardiovascular disease and heart failure among New Zealanders with impaired glucose tolerance over 25 years : tapered-matched landmark analysis",

abstract = "Background: This study aimed to examine the association between the incident onset of T2DM and 5- and 10-year risks of CVD and HF in people with IGT identified in primary care in South and West Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) between 1994 and 2019. Methods: We compared CVD and HF risks in patients with IGT and with/without T2D newly diagnosed within the exposure window (1–5 years). Tapered matching and landmark analysis (to account for immortal bias) were used to control for potential effects of known confounders. Results: Among 26,794 patients enrolled with IGT, 845 had T2D newly diagnosed within 5 years from enrolment (landmark date) and 15,452 did not have T2D diagnosed. Patients progressing to T2D (vs. those not progressing) had a similar 5-year risk for CVD (hazard ratio 1.19; 95% CI 0.61–2.32) but significantly higher 10-year risk of CVD (2.45(1.40–4.29)), 5-year risk of HF (1.94(1.20–3.12)) and 10-year risk of HF (2.84(1.83–4.39). The association between the onset of T2D and risk of 10-year risk of CVD, 5-year and 10-year risk of HF was more likely among men, the socioeconomically deprived, those currently smoking, patients with higher metabolic measures and/or those with lower renal function. Patients of NZ European ethnicity had a lower 10-year risk of CVD. Conclusions: The study suggests that the diagnosis of T2D mediates the risk of CVD and HF in people with IGT. The development of risk scores to identify and better manage individuals with IGT at high risk of T2D is warranted.",

keywords = "Heart failure, Type 2 diabetes, Landmark analysis, Cardiovascular diseases, Impaired glucose tolerance, Tapered matching",

author = "Dahai Yu and Bingjie Qu and Osuagwu, {Uchechukwu Levi} and Karen Pickering and John Baker and Richard Cutfield and Yamei Cai and Orr-Walker, {Brandon J.} and Gerhard Sundborn and Zhanzheng Zhao and David Simmons",

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year = "2023",

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doi = "10.1186/s12933-023-01871-y",

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Yu, D, Qu, B, Osuagwu, UL, Pickering, K, Baker, J, Cutfield, R, Cai, Y, Orr-Walker, BJ, Sundborn, G, Zhao, Z & Simmons, D 2023, 'Effect of onset of type 2 diabetes on risks of cardiovascular disease and heart failure among New Zealanders with impaired glucose tolerance over 25 years : tapered-matched landmark analysis', Cardiovascular Diabetology, vol. 22, no. 1, 163. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12933-023-01871-y

Effect of onset of type 2 diabetes on risks of cardiovascular disease and heart failure among New Zealanders with impaired glucose tolerance over 25 years : tapered-matched landmark analysis. / Yu, Dahai; Qu, Bingjie; Osuagwu, Uchechukwu Levi et al.
In: Cardiovascular Diabetology, Vol. 22, No. 1, 163, 12.2023.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Effect of onset of type 2 diabetes on risks of cardiovascular disease and heart failure among New Zealanders with impaired glucose tolerance over 25 years : tapered-matched landmark analysis

AU - Yu, Dahai

AU - Qu, Bingjie

AU - Osuagwu, Uchechukwu Levi

AU - Pickering, Karen

AU - Baker, John

AU - Cutfield, Richard

AU - Cai, Yamei

AU - Orr-Walker, Brandon J.

AU - Sundborn, Gerhard

AU - Zhao, Zhanzheng

AU - Simmons, David

PY - 2023/12

Y1 - 2023/12

N2 - Background: This study aimed to examine the association between the incident onset of T2DM and 5- and 10-year risks of CVD and HF in people with IGT identified in primary care in South and West Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) between 1994 and 2019. Methods: We compared CVD and HF risks in patients with IGT and with/without T2D newly diagnosed within the exposure window (1–5 years). Tapered matching and landmark analysis (to account for immortal bias) were used to control for potential effects of known confounders. Results: Among 26,794 patients enrolled with IGT, 845 had T2D newly diagnosed within 5 years from enrolment (landmark date) and 15,452 did not have T2D diagnosed. Patients progressing to T2D (vs. those not progressing) had a similar 5-year risk for CVD (hazard ratio 1.19; 95% CI 0.61–2.32) but significantly higher 10-year risk of CVD (2.45(1.40–4.29)), 5-year risk of HF (1.94(1.20–3.12)) and 10-year risk of HF (2.84(1.83–4.39). The association between the onset of T2D and risk of 10-year risk of CVD, 5-year and 10-year risk of HF was more likely among men, the socioeconomically deprived, those currently smoking, patients with higher metabolic measures and/or those with lower renal function. Patients of NZ European ethnicity had a lower 10-year risk of CVD. Conclusions: The study suggests that the diagnosis of T2D mediates the risk of CVD and HF in people with IGT. The development of risk scores to identify and better manage individuals with IGT at high risk of T2D is warranted.

AB - Background: This study aimed to examine the association between the incident onset of T2DM and 5- and 10-year risks of CVD and HF in people with IGT identified in primary care in South and West Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) between 1994 and 2019. Methods: We compared CVD and HF risks in patients with IGT and with/without T2D newly diagnosed within the exposure window (1–5 years). Tapered matching and landmark analysis (to account for immortal bias) were used to control for potential effects of known confounders. Results: Among 26,794 patients enrolled with IGT, 845 had T2D newly diagnosed within 5 years from enrolment (landmark date) and 15,452 did not have T2D diagnosed. Patients progressing to T2D (vs. those not progressing) had a similar 5-year risk for CVD (hazard ratio 1.19; 95% CI 0.61–2.32) but significantly higher 10-year risk of CVD (2.45(1.40–4.29)), 5-year risk of HF (1.94(1.20–3.12)) and 10-year risk of HF (2.84(1.83–4.39). The association between the onset of T2D and risk of 10-year risk of CVD, 5-year and 10-year risk of HF was more likely among men, the socioeconomically deprived, those currently smoking, patients with higher metabolic measures and/or those with lower renal function. Patients of NZ European ethnicity had a lower 10-year risk of CVD. Conclusions: The study suggests that the diagnosis of T2D mediates the risk of CVD and HF in people with IGT. The development of risk scores to identify and better manage individuals with IGT at high risk of T2D is warranted.

KW - Heart failure

KW - Type 2 diabetes

KW - Landmark analysis

KW - Cardiovascular diseases

KW - Impaired glucose tolerance

KW - Tapered matching

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U2 - 10.1186/s12933-023-01871-y

DO - 10.1186/s12933-023-01871-y

M3 - Article

SN - 1475-2840

VL - 22

JO - Cardiovascular Diabetology

JF - Cardiovascular Diabetology

IS - 1

M1 - 163

ER -

Effect of onset of type 2 diabetes on risks of cardiovascular disease and heart failure among New Zealanders with impaired glucose tolerance over 25 years : tapered-matched landmark analysis

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Open Access - Access Right Statement

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Keywords

UN SDGs

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