Estimating the Impact of Reducing Smoking Prevalence on Life Expectancy in Australia Using Risk Percentile Modelling Methods

Tobacco smoking is a major burden on the Australian community in terms of its health, social and economic costs. Smoking contributes to the development of all major chronic diseases, including heart disease and stroke, cancer, and respiratory disease. It is the largest cause of premature death in Australia, contributing to an estimated 15,000 deaths each year. Smoking is a major contributor to the costs of the health system. In addition to the direct costs associated with provision of care for smoking related illness, additional costs to the community include loss of productivity due to absenteeism or reduction in the workforce resulting from premature death. Collins and Lapsley estimated the total cost of smoking to the Australian community to be $31.5 billion in 2004-5. This represented an increase of 23.5% from the total costs estimated for 1998-99.