Evaluation of water security in a water source area from the perspective of nonpoint source pollution

Water security is a basic requirement of a region’s residents and also an important point of discussion worldwide. The middle route of the south-to-north water diversion project (MR-SNWDP) represents the most extensive inter-basin water allocation scheme globally. It is the major water resource for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, and its security is of great significance. In this study, 28 indicators including society, nature, and economy were selected from the water sources of the MR-SNWDP from 2000 to 2017. According to the Drivers-Pressures-States-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework principle, the entropy weight method was used for weight calculation, and the comprehensive evaluation method was used for evaluating the water security of the water sources of the MR-SNWDP. This study showed that the total loss of nonpoint source pollution (NPSP) in the water source showed a trend of slow growth, except in 2007. Over the past 18 years, the proportion of pollution from three NPSP sources, livestock, and poultry (LP) breeding industry, planting industry, and living sources, were 44.56%, 40.33%, and 15.11%, respectively. The main driving force of water security in all the areas of the water source was the total net income per capita of farmers. The main pressure was the amount of LP breeding and the amount of fertilizer application. The largest impact indicators were NPSP gray water footprint and soil erosion area, and water conservancy investment was the most effective response measure. Overall, the state of the water source safety was relatively stable, showing an overall upward trend, and it had remained at Grade III except for in 2005, 2006, and 2011. The state of water safety in all areas except Shiyan City was relatively stable, where the state of water safety had fluctuated greatly. Based on the assessment findings, implications for policy and decision-making suggestions for sustainable management of the water sources of the MR-SNWDP resources are put forward. Agricultural cultivation in water source areas should reduce the application of chemical fertilizers and accelerate the promotion of agricultural intensification. Water source areas should minimize retail livestock and poultry farming and promote ecological agriculture. The government should increase investment in water conservancy and return farmland to forests and grasslands, and at the same time strengthen the education of farmers’ awareness of environmental protection. The evaluation system of this study combined indicators such as the impact of agricultural nonpoint source pollution on water bodies, which is innovative and provides a reference for the water safety evaluation system.