Examining the effects of meteorological drought variability on rainfed cultivation yields in Iran

The economy and welfare of Iranians are heavily reliant on crops, thus the detrimental effects of drought on crops can have far-reaching consequences for society. In this research, we evaluated the occurrence of meteorological drought and its consequential effect on crop yield (barley, lentils, chickpea, and wheat) in rainfed cultivation within diverse regions of Iran from 2006 to 2020. The results demonstrate that a severe drought affected the majority of regions in Iran in both 2007 and 2016–2017, resulting in a negative impact on crop yields specifically in regions R1 and R4. The findings from the analysis of crop performance using the SYRS index indicated that in the year 2007, there were significant losses observed in rainfed crops. Furthermore, the regions exhibiting values of -2.38 and − 2.35 within the barley crop are the regions characterized by the most significant decline in yield. In 2008, the highest losses in chickpea production were observed in the region R8, with a value of -2.08. Lentils have recorded the highest casualties in the regions of R3 and R7, with − 2.71 and − 2.65 respectively. From 2007 to 2012, there has been a decline in wheat yield, with R4 experiencing higher losses compared to other regions. Based on the findings of SYRS, it can be concluded that wheat and chickpeas experience greater losses compared to lentils and barley. A study investigating the effect of climatic parameters and drought on rainfed crop yield found that rainfall had a greater influence on the yield of most crops. Moreover, the yield of barley is more significantly influenced by drought compared to other crops in 3 and 7 regions. The findings derived from this research can inform the implementation of suitable measures to address future drought challenges in regions susceptible to drought and regions crucial for agricultural production.