Exchange rate modelling using news articles and economic data

Debbie Zhang, Simeon J. Simoff, John Debenham

Research output: Chapter in Book / Conference PaperConference Paperpeer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper provides a framework of using news articles and economic data to model the exchange rate changes between Euro and US dollars. Many studies have conducted on the approach of regressing exchange rate movement using numerical data such as macroeconomic indicators. However, this approach is effective in studying the long term trend of the movement but not so accurate in short to middle term behaviour. Recent research suggests that the market daily movement is the result of the market reaction to the daily news. In this paper, it is proposed to use text mining methods to incorporate the daily economic news as well as economic and political events into the prediction model. While this type of news is not included in most of existing models due to its non-quantitative nature, it has important influence in short to middle terms of market behaviour. It is expected that this approach will lead to, an exchange rate model with improved accuracy.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAI 2005
Subtitle of host publicationAdvances in Artificial Intelligence - 18th Australian Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Proceedings
PublisherSpringer Verlag
Pages467-476
Number of pages10
ISBN (Print)3540304622, 9783540304623
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2005
Externally publishedYes
Event18th Australian Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AI 2005: Advances in Artificial Intelligence - Sydney, Australia
Duration: 5 Dec 20059 Dec 2005

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume3809 LNAI
ISSN (Print)0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)1611-3349

Conference

Conference18th Australian Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AI 2005: Advances in Artificial Intelligence
Country/TerritoryAustralia
CitySydney
Period5/12/059/12/05

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