Fire Behaviour Knowledge in Australia: A Synthesis of Disciplinary and Stakeholder Knowledge on Fire Spread Prediction Capability and Application

This project undertook a survey of the fire behaviour knowledge currently used by operational fire behaviour analysts (FBANs) in Australia and New Zealand for the purpose of predicting the behaviour and spread of bushfires. This included a review of the science, applicability and validation of current fire behaviour models, an examination of the fire perimeter propagation software currently being used by FBANs, and a survey of those FBANs to determine current work practices when carrying out fire behaviour predictions. The objective of the work was to synthesise current fire behaviour knowledge and practice and to provide recommendations as to which fire behaviour models, supported by the science and defining operating bounds, should be used for operational prediction of fire spread. While no single fire behaviour model will ever be perfect, the output of models that over-predict rate of spread can be easily readjusted whereas the output of models than under-predict rate of spread can have catastrophic consequences.