Flood frequency and trend analysis for Williams River at Tillegra in Hunter Basin New South Wales Australia

Arfan M. Zaman; Sumya Rahman; Amira Rahman; Ataur Rahman

doi:10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_17

Flood frequency and trend analysis for Williams River at Tillegra in Hunter Basin New South Wales Australia

Arfan M. Zaman
, Sumya Rahman
, Amira Rahman
, Ataur Rahman

School of Engineering

EnviroWater Sydney

Research output: Chapter in Book / Conference Paper › Chapter › peer-review

Abstract

This study presents a flood frequency analysis of the Williams River at Tillegra (Station 210011), located in the Hunter River basin of New South Wales, Australia. This region of Australia is affected by frequent floods. A 93-year record (1932–2024) of annual maximum flood (AMF) data was used in the frequency analysis, with peak flows ranging from 14 m³/s (2014) to 1349 m³/s (1946). Probability distributions including Gumbel, log-normal (LN), log-Pearson Type III (LP3), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Generalized Pareto (GPA) were fitted using FLIKE software, and results were compared with ARR RFFE estimates. The result shows that LP3 and GPA provide the most reliable quantile estimates across return periods, with the LP3 estimate for the 100-year flood (1568 m³/s) aligning closely with GPA and RFFE values. In contrast, GEV and LN overestimated design floods, while Gumbel underestimated them. Trend analysis using regression and non-parametric tests indicated no significant long-term change in AMF data. This is the first study for this river location which compares five probability distributions and RFFE model. The LP3 distribution is recommended for infrastructure design applications at this site.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025
Editors	Ataur Rahman, Dharma Hagare, Zuhaib Siddiqui, Taha B. M. J. Ouarda, Muhammad Muhitur Rahman
Place of Publication	Switzerland
Publisher	Springer Nature Switzerland
Pages	185-194
Number of pages	10
ISBN (Electronic)	9783032187086
ISBN (Print)	9783032187079
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_17
Publication status	Published - 2026
Event	International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering - Sydney, Australia Duration: 19 Nov 2025 → 21 Nov 2025 Conference number: 4th

Publication series

Name	Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering
Volume	822 LNCE
ISSN (Print)	2366-2557
ISSN (Electronic)	2366-2565

Conference

Conference	International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering
Abbreviated title	iCWEE
Country/Territory	Australia
City	Sydney
Period	19/11/25 → 21/11/25

Keywords

ARR RFFE
Floods
GEV distribution
LP3 distribution
Mann-Kendall test
Williams River

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_17

Cite this

Zaman, A. M., Rahman, S., Rahman, A., & Rahman, A. (2026). Flood frequency and trend analysis for Williams River at Tillegra in Hunter Basin New South Wales Australia. In A. Rahman, D. Hagare, Z. Siddiqui, T. B. M. J. Ouarda, & M. Muhitur Rahman (Eds.), 4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025 (pp. 185-194). (Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering; Vol. 822 LNCE). Springer Nature Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_17

Zaman, Arfan M. ; Rahman, Sumya ; Rahman, Amira et al. / Flood frequency and trend analysis for Williams River at Tillegra in Hunter Basin New South Wales Australia. 4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025. editor / Ataur Rahman ; Dharma Hagare ; Zuhaib Siddiqui ; Taha B. M. J. Ouarda ; Muhammad Muhitur Rahman. Switzerland : Springer Nature Switzerland, 2026. pp. 185-194 (Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering).

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title = "Flood frequency and trend analysis for Williams River at Tillegra in Hunter Basin New South Wales Australia",

abstract = "This study presents a flood frequency analysis of the Williams River at Tillegra (Station 210011), located in the Hunter River basin of New South Wales, Australia. This region of Australia is affected by frequent floods. A 93-year record (1932{\textendash}2024) of annual maximum flood (AMF) data was used in the frequency analysis, with peak flows ranging from 14 m3/s (2014) to 1349 m3/s (1946). Probability distributions including Gumbel, log-normal (LN), log-Pearson Type III (LP3), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Generalized Pareto (GPA) were fitted using FLIKE software, and results were compared with ARR RFFE estimates. The result shows that LP3 and GPA provide the most reliable quantile estimates across return periods, with the LP3 estimate for the 100-year flood (1568 m3/s) aligning closely with GPA and RFFE values. In contrast, GEV and LN overestimated design floods, while Gumbel underestimated them. Trend analysis using regression and non-parametric tests indicated no significant long-term change in AMF data. This is the first study for this river location which compares five probability distributions and RFFE model. The LP3 distribution is recommended for infrastructure design applications at this site.",

keywords = "ARR RFFE, Floods, GEV distribution, LP3 distribution, Mann-Kendall test, Williams River",

author = "Zaman, \{Arfan M.\} and Sumya Rahman and Amira Rahman and Ataur Rahman",

year = "2026",

doi = "10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6\_17",

language = "English",

isbn = "9783032187079",

series = "Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering",

publisher = "Springer Nature Switzerland",

pages = "185--194",

editor = "Ataur Rahman and Dharma Hagare and Zuhaib Siddiqui and Ouarda, \{Taha B. M. J.\} and \{Muhitur Rahman\}, Muhammad",

booktitle = "4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025",

note = "International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering, iCWEE ; Conference date: 19-11-2025 Through 21-11-2025",

}

Zaman, AM, Rahman, S, Rahman, A & Rahman, A 2026, Flood frequency and trend analysis for Williams River at Tillegra in Hunter Basin New South Wales Australia. in A Rahman, D Hagare, Z Siddiqui, TBMJ Ouarda & M Muhitur Rahman (eds), 4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025. Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, vol. 822 LNCE, Springer Nature Switzerland, Switzerland , pp. 185-194, International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, 19/11/25. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_17

Flood frequency and trend analysis for Williams River at Tillegra in Hunter Basin New South Wales Australia. / Zaman, Arfan M.; Rahman, Sumya; Rahman, Amira et al.
4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025. ed. / Ataur Rahman; Dharma Hagare; Zuhaib Siddiqui; Taha B. M. J. Ouarda; Muhammad Muhitur Rahman. Switzerland : Springer Nature Switzerland, 2026. p. 185-194 (Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering; Vol. 822 LNCE).

Research output: Chapter in Book / Conference Paper › Chapter › peer-review

TY - CHAP

T1 - Flood frequency and trend analysis for Williams River at Tillegra in Hunter Basin New South Wales Australia

AU - Zaman, Arfan M.

AU - Rahman, Sumya

AU - Rahman, Amira

AU - Rahman, Ataur

N1 - Conference code: 4th

PY - 2026

Y1 - 2026

N2 - This study presents a flood frequency analysis of the Williams River at Tillegra (Station 210011), located in the Hunter River basin of New South Wales, Australia. This region of Australia is affected by frequent floods. A 93-year record (1932–2024) of annual maximum flood (AMF) data was used in the frequency analysis, with peak flows ranging from 14 m3/s (2014) to 1349 m3/s (1946). Probability distributions including Gumbel, log-normal (LN), log-Pearson Type III (LP3), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Generalized Pareto (GPA) were fitted using FLIKE software, and results were compared with ARR RFFE estimates. The result shows that LP3 and GPA provide the most reliable quantile estimates across return periods, with the LP3 estimate for the 100-year flood (1568 m3/s) aligning closely with GPA and RFFE values. In contrast, GEV and LN overestimated design floods, while Gumbel underestimated them. Trend analysis using regression and non-parametric tests indicated no significant long-term change in AMF data. This is the first study for this river location which compares five probability distributions and RFFE model. The LP3 distribution is recommended for infrastructure design applications at this site.

AB - This study presents a flood frequency analysis of the Williams River at Tillegra (Station 210011), located in the Hunter River basin of New South Wales, Australia. This region of Australia is affected by frequent floods. A 93-year record (1932–2024) of annual maximum flood (AMF) data was used in the frequency analysis, with peak flows ranging from 14 m3/s (2014) to 1349 m3/s (1946). Probability distributions including Gumbel, log-normal (LN), log-Pearson Type III (LP3), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Generalized Pareto (GPA) were fitted using FLIKE software, and results were compared with ARR RFFE estimates. The result shows that LP3 and GPA provide the most reliable quantile estimates across return periods, with the LP3 estimate for the 100-year flood (1568 m3/s) aligning closely with GPA and RFFE values. In contrast, GEV and LN overestimated design floods, while Gumbel underestimated them. Trend analysis using regression and non-parametric tests indicated no significant long-term change in AMF data. This is the first study for this river location which compares five probability distributions and RFFE model. The LP3 distribution is recommended for infrastructure design applications at this site.

KW - ARR RFFE

KW - Floods

KW - GEV distribution

KW - LP3 distribution

KW - Mann-Kendall test

KW - Williams River

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105031889603

UR - https://go.openathens.net/redirector/westernsydney.edu.au?url=https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_17

U2 - 10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_17

DO - 10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_17

M3 - Chapter

AN - SCOPUS:105031889603

SN - 9783032187079

T3 - Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering

SP - 185

EP - 194

BT - 4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025

A2 - Rahman, Ataur

A2 - Hagare, Dharma

A2 - Siddiqui, Zuhaib

A2 - Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

A2 - Muhitur Rahman, Muhammad

PB - Springer Nature Switzerland

CY - Switzerland

T2 - International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering

Y2 - 19 November 2025 through 21 November 2025

ER -

Zaman AM, Rahman S, Rahman A, Rahman A. Flood frequency and trend analysis for Williams River at Tillegra in Hunter Basin New South Wales Australia. In Rahman A, Hagare D, Siddiqui Z, Ouarda TBMJ, Muhitur Rahman M, editors, 4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025. Switzerland : Springer Nature Switzerland. 2026. p. 185-194. (Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering). doi: 10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_17

Flood frequency and trend analysis for Williams River at Tillegra in Hunter Basin New South Wales Australia

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Keywords

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