Food security and climate change : evaluating mismatch between crop development and water availability

Plant breeding and crop selection involves optimiz¬ing yield for different agro-ecological zones. Soil and climatic parameters are the major matching factors, with temperature, photoperiod and water availability being major climatic factors influencing crop adaption and productivity. Under climate change scenarios, it is proposed that average temperatures will increase while there will be changes in both the amount and distribu¬tion of rainfall. Because of these changes, it is probable that mismatches will arise between crop phenology (the growth stages of the crop) and environmental factors, resulting in yield decreases. This will occur through, for example, water or temperature stresses at critical periods of crop yield determination (Huda et al., 2011; Mei, 2005; Sadras and Monzon, 2006; Goswami et al., 2006 and Wani et al., 2008). A project has been developed with APN ARCP funding to examine mismatches between crop phenol¬ogy and climate (particularly water availability) arising from recently realized climate trends and proposed climate change. Research collaborators are UWS and South Australian Research and Development Institute SARDI), International Crops Research Institute for the Semi Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), and Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS). The project commenced in September 2010 and major coordination activities have been workshops in China, India and Australia to plan and achieve the desired project research outcomes. Possible mismatches arising from realized warming were the subject of the project planning workshop, held in Beijing in September 2010. The workshop designed case studies in China, India and Australia, and realized a significant input to the project that would be made by young researchers in China and India. Strategies have been developed to enhance capacity building of these researchers during the project, including their involve-ment in the final project workshop in Australia.