Forecasting property market cycles : an application of the RICS model to the Sydney CBD office market

In May, 2000 the RICS Research Foundation published ââ"šÂ¬Ã…"Forecasting Office Supply And Demandââ"šÂ¬Ã‚Â. The publication included a multi-equation office market forecasting model based on office market cycles for the City of London (the ââ"šÂ¬Ã…"RICS Modelââ"šÂ¬Ã‚Â). The RICS Model adopted variables intended to be common to all office markets around the world and so may be expected to be capable of application to the Sydney CBD office market. Using data sourced by Jones Lang LaSalle, the RICS Model was applied to the Sydney CBD office market and the results observed. Through a review of the differences arising from UK and Australian data sources and of the structural differences between the City of London and Sydney CBD office markets, the results of the RICS Model are analysed and suggestions made to improve its future use in Australian property markets.