Global and temporal COVID-19 risk evaluation

Mudassar Arsalan; Omar Mubin; Fady Alnajjar; Belal Alsinglawi; Nazar Zaki

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2020.00440

Global and temporal COVID-19 risk evaluation

Mudassar Arsalan
, Omar Mubin
, Fady Alnajjar
, Belal Alsinglawi
, Nazar Zaki

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

12 Citations (Scopus)

3 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented crisis across the world, with many countries struggling with the pandemic. In order to understand how each country is impacted by the virus and assess the risk on a global scale we present a regression based analysis using two pre-existing indexes, namely the Inform and Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index, in conjunction with the number of elderly living in the population. Further we introduce a temporal layer in our modeling by incorporating the stringency level employed by each country over a period of 6 time intervals. Our results show that the indexes and level of stringency are not ideally suited for explaining variation in COVID-19 risk, however the ratio of elderly in the population is a stand out indicator in terms of its predictive power for mortality risk. In conclusion, we discuss how such modeling approaches can assist public health policy.

Original language	English
Article number	440
Number of pages	7
Journal	Frontiers in Public Health
Volume	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00440
Publication status	Published - 7 Aug 2020

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© Copyright © 2020 Arsalan, Mubin, Alnajjar, Alsinglawi and Zaki.

Open Access - Access Right Statement

Copyright © 2020 Arsalan, Mubin, Alnajjar, Alsinglawi and Zaki. This is an open- access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

Keywords

COVID-19 (disease)
public health
risk assessment

Access to Document

10.3389/fpubh.2020.00440

Open access

Cite this

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title = "Global and temporal COVID-19 risk evaluation",

abstract = "The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented crisis across the world, with many countries struggling with the pandemic. In order to understand how each country is impacted by the virus and assess the risk on a global scale we present a regression based analysis using two pre-existing indexes, namely the Inform and Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index, in conjunction with the number of elderly living in the population. Further we introduce a temporal layer in our modeling by incorporating the stringency level employed by each country over a period of 6 time intervals. Our results show that the indexes and level of stringency are not ideally suited for explaining variation in COVID-19 risk, however the ratio of elderly in the population is a stand out indicator in terms of its predictive power for mortality risk. In conclusion, we discuss how such modeling approaches can assist public health policy.",

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AU - Arsalan, Mudassar

AU - Mubin, Omar

AU - Alnajjar, Fady

AU - Alsinglawi, Belal

AU - Zaki, Nazar

PY - 2020/8/7

Y1 - 2020/8/7

N2 - The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented crisis across the world, with many countries struggling with the pandemic. In order to understand how each country is impacted by the virus and assess the risk on a global scale we present a regression based analysis using two pre-existing indexes, namely the Inform and Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index, in conjunction with the number of elderly living in the population. Further we introduce a temporal layer in our modeling by incorporating the stringency level employed by each country over a period of 6 time intervals. Our results show that the indexes and level of stringency are not ideally suited for explaining variation in COVID-19 risk, however the ratio of elderly in the population is a stand out indicator in terms of its predictive power for mortality risk. In conclusion, we discuss how such modeling approaches can assist public health policy.

AB - The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented crisis across the world, with many countries struggling with the pandemic. In order to understand how each country is impacted by the virus and assess the risk on a global scale we present a regression based analysis using two pre-existing indexes, namely the Inform and Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index, in conjunction with the number of elderly living in the population. Further we introduce a temporal layer in our modeling by incorporating the stringency level employed by each country over a period of 6 time intervals. Our results show that the indexes and level of stringency are not ideally suited for explaining variation in COVID-19 risk, however the ratio of elderly in the population is a stand out indicator in terms of its predictive power for mortality risk. In conclusion, we discuss how such modeling approaches can assist public health policy.

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KW - public health

KW - risk assessment

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U2 - 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00440

DO - 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00440

M3 - Article

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VL - 8

JO - Frontiers in Public Health

JF - Frontiers in Public Health

M1 - 440

ER -

Global and temporal COVID-19 risk evaluation

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Open Access - Access Right Statement

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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