Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms

Jo-An Atkinson; Dylan Knowles; John Wiggers; Michael Livingston; Robin Room; Ante Prodan; Geoff McDonnell; Eloise O’Donnell; Sandra Jones; Paul S. Haber; David Muscatello; Nadine Ezard; Nghi Phung; Louise Freebairn; Devon Indig; Lucie Rychetnik; Jaithri Ananthapavan; Sonia Wutzke

Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms

Jo-An Atkinson, Dylan Knowles, John Wiggers, Michael Livingston, Robin Room, Ante Prodan, Geoff McDonnell, Eloise O’Donnell, Sandra Jones, Paul S. Haber, David Muscatello, Nadine Ezard, Nghi Phung, Louise Freebairn, Devon Indig, Lucie Rychetnik, Jaithri Ananthapavan, Sonia Wutzke

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

23 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objectives: Alcohol misuse is a complex systemic problem. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of using a transparent and participatory agent-based modelling approach to develop a robust decision support tool to test alcohol policy scenarios before they are implemented in the real world. Methods: A consortium of Australia's leading alcohol experts was engaged to collaboratively develop an agent-based model of alcohol consumption behaviour and related harms. As a case study, four policy scenarios were examined. Results: A 19.5 Â± 2.5% reduction in acute alcohol-related harms was estimated with the implementation of a 3 a.m. licensed venue closing time plus 1 a.m. lockout; and a 9 Â± 2.6% reduction in incidence was estimated with expansion of treatment services to reach 20% of heavy drinkers. Combining the two scenarios produced a 33.3 Â± 2.7% reduction in the incidence of acute alcohol-related harms, suggesting a synergistic effect. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the feasibility of participatory development of a contextually relevant computer simulation model of alcohol-related harms and highlights the value of the approach in identifying potential policy responses that best leverage limited resources.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	537-546
Number of pages	10
Journal	International Journal of Public Health
Volume	63
Issue number	4
Publication status	Published - 1 May 2018

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2017, The Author(s).

Keywords

alcoholism
computer simulation
planning

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Atkinson, J.-A., Knowles, D., Wiggers, J., Livingston, M., Room, R., Prodan, A., McDonnell, G., O’Donnell, E., Jones, S., Haber, P. S., Muscatello, D., Ezard, N., Phung, N., Freebairn, L., Indig, D., Rychetnik, L., Ananthapavan, J., & Wutzke, S. (2018). Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms. International Journal of Public Health, 63(4), 537-546.

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title = "Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms",

abstract = "Objectives: Alcohol misuse is a complex systemic problem. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of using a transparent and participatory agent-based modelling approach to develop a robust decision support tool to test alcohol policy scenarios before they are implemented in the real world. Methods: A consortium of Australia's leading alcohol experts was engaged to collaboratively develop an agent-based model of alcohol consumption behaviour and related harms. As a case study, four policy scenarios were examined. Results: A 19.5 {\^A}± 2.5% reduction in acute alcohol-related harms was estimated with the implementation of a 3 a.m. licensed venue closing time plus 1 a.m. lockout; and a 9 {\^A}± 2.6% reduction in incidence was estimated with expansion of treatment services to reach 20% of heavy drinkers. Combining the two scenarios produced a 33.3 {\^A}± 2.7% reduction in the incidence of acute alcohol-related harms, suggesting a synergistic effect. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the feasibility of participatory development of a contextually relevant computer simulation model of alcohol-related harms and highlights the value of the approach in identifying potential policy responses that best leverage limited resources.",

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Atkinson, J-A, Knowles, D, Wiggers, J, Livingston, M, Room, R, Prodan, A, McDonnell, G, O’Donnell, E, Jones, S, Haber, PS, Muscatello, D, Ezard, N, Phung, N, Freebairn, L, Indig, D, Rychetnik, L, Ananthapavan, J & Wutzke, S 2018, 'Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms', International Journal of Public Health, vol. 63, no. 4, pp. 537-546.

TY - JOUR

T1 - Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms

AU - Atkinson, Jo-An

AU - Knowles, Dylan

AU - Wiggers, John

AU - Livingston, Michael

AU - Room, Robin

AU - Prodan, Ante

AU - McDonnell, Geoff

AU - O’Donnell, Eloise

AU - Jones, Sandra

AU - Haber, Paul S.

AU - Muscatello, David

AU - Ezard, Nadine

AU - Phung, Nghi

AU - Freebairn, Louise

AU - Indig, Devon

AU - Rychetnik, Lucie

AU - Ananthapavan, Jaithri

AU - Wutzke, Sonia

PY - 2018/5/1

Y1 - 2018/5/1

N2 - Objectives: Alcohol misuse is a complex systemic problem. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of using a transparent and participatory agent-based modelling approach to develop a robust decision support tool to test alcohol policy scenarios before they are implemented in the real world. Methods: A consortium of Australia's leading alcohol experts was engaged to collaboratively develop an agent-based model of alcohol consumption behaviour and related harms. As a case study, four policy scenarios were examined. Results: A 19.5 Â± 2.5% reduction in acute alcohol-related harms was estimated with the implementation of a 3 a.m. licensed venue closing time plus 1 a.m. lockout; and a 9 Â± 2.6% reduction in incidence was estimated with expansion of treatment services to reach 20% of heavy drinkers. Combining the two scenarios produced a 33.3 Â± 2.7% reduction in the incidence of acute alcohol-related harms, suggesting a synergistic effect. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the feasibility of participatory development of a contextually relevant computer simulation model of alcohol-related harms and highlights the value of the approach in identifying potential policy responses that best leverage limited resources.

AB - Objectives: Alcohol misuse is a complex systemic problem. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of using a transparent and participatory agent-based modelling approach to develop a robust decision support tool to test alcohol policy scenarios before they are implemented in the real world. Methods: A consortium of Australia's leading alcohol experts was engaged to collaboratively develop an agent-based model of alcohol consumption behaviour and related harms. As a case study, four policy scenarios were examined. Results: A 19.5 Â± 2.5% reduction in acute alcohol-related harms was estimated with the implementation of a 3 a.m. licensed venue closing time plus 1 a.m. lockout; and a 9 Â± 2.6% reduction in incidence was estimated with expansion of treatment services to reach 20% of heavy drinkers. Combining the two scenarios produced a 33.3 Â± 2.7% reduction in the incidence of acute alcohol-related harms, suggesting a synergistic effect. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the feasibility of participatory development of a contextually relevant computer simulation model of alcohol-related harms and highlights the value of the approach in identifying potential policy responses that best leverage limited resources.

KW - alcoholism

KW - computer simulation

KW - planning

UR - http://handle.westernsydney.edu.au:8081/1959.7/uws:43219

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SN - 1661-8564

SN - 1661-8556

VL - 63

SP - 537

EP - 546

JO - International Journal of Public Health

JF - International Journal of Public Health

IS - 4

ER -

Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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