Health costs of wildfire smoke to rise under climate change

Hamish Clarke; Brett Cirulis; Nicolas Borchers-Arriagada; Ross Bradstock; Owen Price; Trent Penman

Health costs of wildfire smoke to rise under climate change

Hamish Clarke, Brett Cirulis, Nicolas Borchers-Arriagada, Ross Bradstock, Owen Price, Trent Penman

Western Sydney University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The global health burden from wildfire smoke is expected to worsen under climate change, yet we lack quantitative estimates of the economic costs of increased mortality and hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions. Using a quantitative wildfire risk assessment framework and a 12-member climate model ensemble, we find a median increase in wildfire smoke health costs of 1-16% by 2070 across diverse landscapes in south-eastern Australia. Ensemble maximum cost increases (5-38%) often exceed abatements from fuel treatment, while costs decline moderately (0-7%) for the ensemble minimum. Unmitigated climate change will increase the health burden of wildfire smoke and undermine prescribed burning effectiveness.

Original language	English
Article number	102
Number of pages	4
Journal	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Volume	6
Issue number	1
Publication status	Published - Dec 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).

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Cite this

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AU - Bradstock, Ross

AU - Price, Owen

AU - Penman, Trent

PY - 2023/12

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N2 - The global health burden from wildfire smoke is expected to worsen under climate change, yet we lack quantitative estimates of the economic costs of increased mortality and hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions. Using a quantitative wildfire risk assessment framework and a 12-member climate model ensemble, we find a median increase in wildfire smoke health costs of 1-16% by 2070 across diverse landscapes in south-eastern Australia. Ensemble maximum cost increases (5-38%) often exceed abatements from fuel treatment, while costs decline moderately (0-7%) for the ensemble minimum. Unmitigated climate change will increase the health burden of wildfire smoke and undermine prescribed burning effectiveness.

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ER -

Health costs of wildfire smoke to rise under climate change

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Open Access - Access Right Statement

UN SDGs

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