Impacts of regional climate change on the productivity of managed forests in Sweden

LPJ-GUESS, a process-based regional ecosystem model incorporating forest management practices, was applied over a geographical window covering entire landmass of Sweden at a resolution of 0.5° longitude and latitude. Possible consequences of alternative regional climate change scenarios and elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration on net primary productivity (NPP) and stem wood volume increment under existing silvicultural management practices were evaluated. In the simulations regional climate model (RCM) scenarios with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs: HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3) and compatible with the A2 and 132 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used. Under all RCM scenarios, the model predicted substantial increases in NPP and wood volume increment, especially in central and northern Sweden due to combined effects of warmer and wetter climate and higher levels of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.