Investigation into probabilistic nature of continuing loss in four catchments in Victoria

Elias H. Ishak, Ataur Rahman

    Research output: Chapter in Book / Conference PaperConference Paper

    Abstract

    ![CDATA[The currently recommended rainfall-based design flood estimation in Australian Rainfall and Runoff is based on a Design Event Approach which considers the probabilistic nature of rainfall intensity but largely ignores the probabilistic nature and interactions of other flood-producing variables such as initial loss and continuing loss in runoff routing modelling. This is regarded as one of greatest weaknesses of the Design Event Approach and has been widely criticised. In recent years, there have been some researches in Australia on a more holistic approach of design flood estimation such as the Joint Probability Approach/ Monte Carlo Simulation technique. The advantage of the Monte Carlo Simulation technique is that this can consider the probabilistic nature of the major floodproducing variables and their correlations in the runoff routing model in an explicit manner. This new approach has created notable interest among professionals in Australia. The Monte Carlo Simulation technique so far has considered the continuing loss as a fixed value taken as the median or mean of the observed values. This paper investigates the variability of continuing losses in four Victorian catchments. It has been found that the continuing losses show a high degree of variability. Three probability distributions (Exponential, two-parameter Gamma and four-parameter Beta) were tested to fit the observed distributions of continuing losses. Based on the Chi-squared test, it has been found that the four-parameter Beta distribution can be used to reasonably approximate the distribution of continuing losses. Furthermore, continuing loss is expressed as a decreasing function of rainfall duration, which may also be used in the Monte Carlo Simulation technique.]]
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publication30th Hydrology & Water Resources Symposium: Past, Present & Future, Hotel Grand Chancellor, Launceston, 4-7 December 2006. Conference Proceedings
    PublisherConference Design
    Number of pages6
    ISBN (Print)0858257904
    Publication statusPublished - 2006
    EventHydrology and Water Resources Symposium -
    Duration: 19 Nov 2012 → …

    Conference

    ConferenceHydrology and Water Resources Symposium
    Period19/11/12 → …

    Keywords

    • flood forecasting
    • runoff
    • floods
    • watersheds
    • Victoria
    • Monte Carlo method

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