Kriging of generalised extreme value distribution parameters for regional flood frequency analysis in New South Wales

Laura Rima; Khaled Haddad; Ataur Rahman

doi:10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_9

Kriging of generalised extreme value distribution parameters for regional flood frequency analysis in New South Wales

Laura Rima
, Khaled Haddad
, Ataur Rahman

School of Engineering

Research output: Chapter in Book / Conference Paper › Chapter › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

This study presents a new regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) approach that combines kriging with a parameter regression technique (PRT) framework, using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The method relies on spatial correlations between catchments to predict GEV parameters (location, scale, and shape). This study uses data from 88 gauged catchments in New South Wales (NSW) and flood quantiles across six annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), (50%, 20%, 10%, 5%, 2%, and 1%) are considered. A leave one out validation technique is used to assess the model’s performance, and evaluation statistics are employed to assess its accuracy. The findings highlight the feasibility and effectiveness of integrating GEV distribution with geostatistical methods into RFFA. The results show that the kriging-PRT method has an absolute median relative error (median REr%) values ranging from 35% to 43% across different AEPs. These findings are consistent with other RFFA studies, confirming the reliability of kriging-based approaches in RFFA.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025
Editors	Ataur Rahman, Dharma Hagare, Zuhaib Siddiqui, Taha B. M. J. Ouarda, Muhammad Muhitur Rahman
Place of Publication	Switzerland
Publisher	Springer Nature Switzerland
Pages	100-108
Number of pages	9
ISBN (Electronic)	9783032187086
ISBN (Print)	9783032187079
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_9
Publication status	Published - 2026
Event	International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering - Sydney, Australia Duration: 19 Nov 2025 → 21 Nov 2025 Conference number: 4th

Publication series

Name	Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering
Volume	822 LNCE
ISSN (Print)	2366-2557
ISSN (Electronic)	2366-2565

Conference

Conference	International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering
Abbreviated title	iCWEE
Country/Territory	Australia
City	Sydney
Period	19/11/25 → 21/11/25

Keywords

GEV
Kriging
PRT
RFFA

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_9

Cite this

Rima, L., Haddad, K., & Rahman, A. (2026). Kriging of generalised extreme value distribution parameters for regional flood frequency analysis in New South Wales. In A. Rahman, D. Hagare, Z. Siddiqui, T. B. M. J. Ouarda, & M. Muhitur Rahman (Eds.), 4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025 (pp. 100-108). (Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering; Vol. 822 LNCE). Springer Nature Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_9

Rima, Laura ; Haddad, Khaled ; Rahman, Ataur. / Kriging of generalised extreme value distribution parameters for regional flood frequency analysis in New South Wales. 4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025. editor / Ataur Rahman ; Dharma Hagare ; Zuhaib Siddiqui ; Taha B. M. J. Ouarda ; Muhammad Muhitur Rahman. Switzerland : Springer Nature Switzerland, 2026. pp. 100-108 (Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering).

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abstract = "This study presents a new regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) approach that combines kriging with a parameter regression technique (PRT) framework, using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The method relies on spatial correlations between catchments to predict GEV parameters (location, scale, and shape). This study uses data from 88 gauged catchments in New South Wales (NSW) and flood quantiles across six annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), (50\%, 20\%, 10\%, 5\%, 2\%, and 1\%) are considered. A leave one out validation technique is used to assess the model{\textquoteright}s performance, and evaluation statistics are employed to assess its accuracy. The findings highlight the feasibility and effectiveness of integrating GEV distribution with geostatistical methods into RFFA. The results show that the kriging-PRT method has an absolute median relative error (median REr\%) values ranging from 35\% to 43\% across different AEPs. These findings are consistent with other RFFA studies, confirming the reliability of kriging-based approaches in RFFA.",

keywords = "GEV, Kriging, PRT, RFFA",

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Rima, L, Haddad, K & Rahman, A 2026, Kriging of generalised extreme value distribution parameters for regional flood frequency analysis in New South Wales. in A Rahman, D Hagare, Z Siddiqui, TBMJ Ouarda & M Muhitur Rahman (eds), 4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025. Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, vol. 822 LNCE, Springer Nature Switzerland, Switzerland, pp. 100-108, International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, 19/11/25. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_9

Kriging of generalised extreme value distribution parameters for regional flood frequency analysis in New South Wales. / Rima, Laura; Haddad, Khaled; Rahman, Ataur.
4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025. ed. / Ataur Rahman; Dharma Hagare; Zuhaib Siddiqui; Taha B. M. J. Ouarda; Muhammad Muhitur Rahman. Switzerland: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2026. p. 100-108 (Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering; Vol. 822 LNCE).

Research output: Chapter in Book / Conference Paper › Chapter › peer-review

TY - CHAP

T1 - Kriging of generalised extreme value distribution parameters for regional flood frequency analysis in New South Wales

AU - Rima, Laura

AU - Haddad, Khaled

AU - Rahman, Ataur

N1 - Conference code: 4th

PY - 2026

Y1 - 2026

N2 - This study presents a new regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) approach that combines kriging with a parameter regression technique (PRT) framework, using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The method relies on spatial correlations between catchments to predict GEV parameters (location, scale, and shape). This study uses data from 88 gauged catchments in New South Wales (NSW) and flood quantiles across six annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), (50%, 20%, 10%, 5%, 2%, and 1%) are considered. A leave one out validation technique is used to assess the model’s performance, and evaluation statistics are employed to assess its accuracy. The findings highlight the feasibility and effectiveness of integrating GEV distribution with geostatistical methods into RFFA. The results show that the kriging-PRT method has an absolute median relative error (median REr%) values ranging from 35% to 43% across different AEPs. These findings are consistent with other RFFA studies, confirming the reliability of kriging-based approaches in RFFA.

AB - This study presents a new regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) approach that combines kriging with a parameter regression technique (PRT) framework, using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The method relies on spatial correlations between catchments to predict GEV parameters (location, scale, and shape). This study uses data from 88 gauged catchments in New South Wales (NSW) and flood quantiles across six annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), (50%, 20%, 10%, 5%, 2%, and 1%) are considered. A leave one out validation technique is used to assess the model’s performance, and evaluation statistics are employed to assess its accuracy. The findings highlight the feasibility and effectiveness of integrating GEV distribution with geostatistical methods into RFFA. The results show that the kriging-PRT method has an absolute median relative error (median REr%) values ranging from 35% to 43% across different AEPs. These findings are consistent with other RFFA studies, confirming the reliability of kriging-based approaches in RFFA.

KW - GEV

KW - Kriging

KW - PRT

KW - RFFA

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DO - 10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_9

M3 - Chapter

AN - SCOPUS:105031906997

SN - 9783032187079

T3 - Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering

SP - 100

EP - 108

BT - 4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025

A2 - Rahman, Ataur

A2 - Hagare, Dharma

A2 - Siddiqui, Zuhaib

A2 - Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

A2 - Muhitur Rahman, Muhammad

PB - Springer Nature Switzerland

CY - Switzerland

T2 - International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering

Y2 - 19 November 2025 through 21 November 2025

ER -

Rima L, Haddad K, Rahman A. Kriging of generalised extreme value distribution parameters for regional flood frequency analysis in New South Wales. In Rahman A, Hagare D, Siddiqui Z, Ouarda TBMJ, Muhitur Rahman M, editors, 4th International Conference on Water and Environmental Engineering: Proceedings of iCWEE 2025. Switzerland: Springer Nature Switzerland. 2026. p. 100-108. (Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering). doi: 10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_9

Kriging of generalised extreme value distribution parameters for regional flood frequency analysis in New South Wales

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