Land productivity declines in the GGW while human contributions to restoration far outweighing degradation

Yubo Zhi; Xiaosong Li; Tong Shen; Graciela Metternicht; Anne Grainger; Yude Pan; Qi Lu; Amos Tiereyangn Kabo-Bah

doi:10.1038/s41598-025-18963-2

Land productivity declines in the GGW while human contributions to restoration far outweighing degradation

Yubo Zhi
, Xiaosong Li
, Tong Shen
, Graciela Metternicht
, Anne Grainger
, Yude Pan
, Qi Lu
, Amos Tiereyangn Kabo-Bah

School of Science

CAS - Aerospace Information Research Institute
International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
University of Leeds
United States Department of Agriculture
Chinese Academy of Forestry
University of Energy and Natural Resources

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

3 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The African Great Green Wall (GGW) initiative is a major effort to achieve the Sustainable Developed Goals (SDG) 15.3 target of Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) in the Sahel regions. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the land productivity dynamics (LPD) within the GGW from 2013 to 2022, serving as a sub-indicator for SDG 15.3.1 reporting and analyzes the key factors influencing these changes. Our results indicate that the land degradation outpaces restoration in the GGW, with 4.93% of the area experiencing declining land productivity (LP) compared to only 3.44% showing improvement. This suggesting that the effectiveness of the GGW initiative has not met expectations, highlighting the need for more targeted interventions. Among the drivers of LPD, we found that land cover change (LCC) accounts for the largest share of LPD increase (30.97%), while climate change (CLI) is the main contributor to declining LP (43.51%). The impact of CO₂ fertilization is similar to that of LCC, whereas nitrogen deposition (NDE) has a minimal influence. Among human-driven factors, forest loss, cropland abandonment and deforestation for cultivation are the primary causes of declining LP. Conversely, forest expansion and reclamation of bare land for agriculture are the main contributors to increasing LP. Our findings demonstrate that while climate change remains a major challenge, human-driven land management strategies can play a pivotal role in restoring degraded land. The GGW initiative requires more coordinated, science-based strategies to achieve its full potential by 2030. By integrating climate adaptation, land restoration policies, and sustainable land-use practices, the GGW can enhance both ecological resilience and community livelihoods across the Sahel.

Original language	English
Article number	34948
Number of pages	11
Journal	Scientific Reports
Volume	15
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-18963-2
Publication status	Published - Dec 2025

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UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 2 Zero Hunger
SDG 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth
SDG 13 Climate Action
SDG 15 Life on Land
SDG 17 Partnerships for the Goals

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Cite this

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abstract = "The African Great Green Wall (GGW) initiative is a major effort to achieve the Sustainable Developed Goals (SDG) 15.3 target of Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) in the Sahel regions. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the land productivity dynamics (LPD) within the GGW from 2013 to 2022, serving as a sub-indicator for SDG 15.3.1 reporting and analyzes the key factors influencing these changes. Our results indicate that the land degradation outpaces restoration in the GGW, with 4.93\% of the area experiencing declining land productivity (LP) compared to only 3.44\% showing improvement. This suggesting that the effectiveness of the GGW initiative has not met expectations, highlighting the need for more targeted interventions. Among the drivers of LPD, we found that land cover change (LCC) accounts for the largest share of LPD increase (30.97\%), while climate change (CLI) is the main contributor to declining LP (43.51\%). The impact of CO2 fertilization is similar to that of LCC, whereas nitrogen deposition (NDE) has a minimal influence. Among human-driven factors, forest loss, cropland abandonment and deforestation for cultivation are the primary causes of declining LP. Conversely, forest expansion and reclamation of bare land for agriculture are the main contributors to increasing LP. Our findings demonstrate that while climate change remains a major challenge, human-driven land management strategies can play a pivotal role in restoring degraded land. The GGW initiative requires more coordinated, science-based strategies to achieve its full potential by 2030. By integrating climate adaptation, land restoration policies, and sustainable land-use practices, the GGW can enhance both ecological resilience and community livelihoods across the Sahel.",

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AU - Pan, Yude

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AU - Kabo-Bah, Amos Tiereyangn

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Land productivity declines in the GGW while human contributions to restoration far outweighing degradation

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Open Access - Access Right Statement

UN SDGs

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