Learning by experiencing : systemics, futures thinking, and scenarios

Past performance is not necessarily a reliable indicator of future performance. This is true for all systems, whether economic, social, or ecological. Systems are dynamic. While we try to understand how changes in systems will affect sustainability, we cannot reliably predict outcomes, nor can we reliably select a desired future condition and control the systems to meet our future requirements"”let alone our desired future condition. Critical scenario learning for systemic development, or scenario learning, represents a framework for achieving sustainable development. This framework is especially helpful in situations where there is a high degree of uncertainty and complexity. If our current ways of being are not sustainable, how do we as individuals and as a society adopt new ways of being? Before we can act differently, we must learn to see the world from different viewpoints, and from these new viewpoints take action. Scenario learning is a way of examining our own points of view and those of others.