Life Cycle Energy Consumption in China’s Urban Residential Building Sector Through 2035: A Dynamic Scenario Simulation

The Chinese government has made commitments to peak energy consumption by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Accurate prediction of energy conservation in the urban residential building sector is essential for reaching the carbon neutrality target. This study aims to enhance the accuracy of building energy consumption prediction and simulate the energy consumption trends of urban residential buildings in China by 2030. A comprehensive life cycle energy framework for buildings was systematically established, encompassing embodied, operational, and mobile energies. System dynamics was subsequently employed to unveil the internal interaction mechanisms, and a quantitative building energy consumption prediction model was developed. Various scenarios were devised to account for potential unexpected changes in energy consumption in the future. Results show that: (1) there will be a significant increase in the life cycle energy consumption of buildings; (2) energy-saving policies and optimized technologies will effectively reduce energy consumption and potentially achieve a peak before 2030; and (3) mobile energy accounts for 15% of the total energy consumption and serves as a primary contributor to energy consumption. This study not only enriches the theoretical framework of life cycle energy, highlighting the significance of mobile energy, but also provides comprehensive, continuous, and accurate predictions of life cycle energy consumption values by 2030. These findings can serve as valuable references for future policy-making and adjustments in energy structure.