TY - JOUR
T1 - Locked into Copenhagen pledges - implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals
AU - Riahi, Keywan
AU - Kriegler, Elmar
AU - Johnson, Nils
AU - Bertram, Christoph
AU - den Elzen, Michel
AU - Eom, Jiyong
AU - Schaeffer, Michiel
AU - Edmonds, Jae
AU - Isaac, Morna
AU - Krey, Volker
AU - Longden, Thomas
AU - Luderer, Gunnar
AU - Méjean, Aurélie
AU - McCollum, David L.
AU - Mima, Silvana
AU - Turton, Hal
AU - van Vuuren, Detlef P.
AU - Wada, Kenichi
AU - Bosetti, Valentina
AU - Capros, Pantelis
AU - Criqui, Patrick
AU - Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem
AU - Kainuma, Mikiko
AU - Edenhofer, Ottmar
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2014 The Authors.
PY - 2015/1/1
Y1 - 2015/1/1
N2 - This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2°C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become "a must" by 2030.
AB - This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2°C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become "a must" by 2030.
KW - AMPERE
KW - Climate policy
KW - Copenhagen pledges
KW - Greenhouse gas emissions
KW - Mitigation
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84916923549&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016
DO - 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84916923549
SN - 0040-1625
VL - 90
SP - 8
EP - 23
JO - Technological Forecasting and Social Change
JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change
IS - Part A
ER -