Long term water demand forcasting : use of Monte Carlo cross validation for the best model selection

Md. Mahmudul Haque, Khaled Haddad, Ataur Rahman, Mohammed Hossain, Dharma Hagare, Golam Kibria

    Research output: Chapter in Book / Conference PaperConference Paperpeer-review

    Abstract

    ![CDATA[Selection and validation of any statistical models are very crucial in modelling and forecasting problems. In multiple regression analysis of forecasting long term water demand, various models are developed with a variety of predictor variables. Moreover, multiple regression models can take different forms such as linear, semi-log and log-log. In this paper, an effective but simple procedure named Monte Carlo cross validation (MCCV) is applied and compared to the most widely used leave-one-out validation (LOO) to select the best multiple regression model to forecast water demand. Unlike LOO validation, MCCV leaves out a major part of the sample during validation. Both methods are also used for estimating the prediction ability of the selected model on future samples. The advantage of MCCV is that it can reduce the risk of over fitting the model by avoiding an unnecessary large model. In this paper, MCCV and LOO are applied to the water demand data set for the Blue Mountains, NSW in Australia for single dwelling residential sector. The results show that MCCV has the ability to select an appropriate water demand forecasting model. It is also found that, MCCV assesses the prediction ability of the selected model with a higher degree of accuracy. Furthermore, the model selected by MCCV provides less uncertainty when forecasting long term water demand.]]
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationAdapting to Change: the Multiple Roles of Modelling: Proceedings of the 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013), 1-6 December 2013, Adelaide, South Australia
    PublisherThe Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc.
    Pages2311-2317
    Number of pages7
    ISBN (Print)9780987214331
    Publication statusPublished - 2013
    EventMSSANZ/IMACS Biennial Conference on Modelling and Simulation -
    Duration: 1 Dec 2013 → …

    Conference

    ConferenceMSSANZ/IMACS Biennial Conference on Modelling and Simulation
    Period1/12/13 → …

    Keywords

    • New South Wales
    • Australia
    • environment and sustainability
    • Blue Mountains (N.S.W.)
    • infrastructure (economics)
    • Centre for Western Sydney

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