M(any) takers? Orienting adaptive management to address enrolment uncertainties in private land conservation

Voluntary protection of private lands constitutes a key pillar of global and national biodiversity conservation strategies. However, the dependence of voluntary private land conservation (PLC) programs on landholders' idiosyncratic decisions represents a fundamental risk to actualising conservation outcomes. Several social, environmental and political factors influence (1) who will enrol, (2) the conservation value of the land parcel they will enrol, and (3) how long the land parcel will be protected. The interplay of these three uncertainties decides the feasibility of program objectives. Yet, they are often downplayed in program governance. This perspective advocates for an adaptive management approach to account for enrolment uncertainties and their flow-on effects on ecological outcomes in voluntary PLC programs. Using four enrolment quality scenarios, we demonstrate the deterministic effects of voluntary conservation decisions on conservation success. We further sketch out how conservation agencies can enhance the quality of landholder participation through dynamic management of the enrolment continuum (prospective, new and old enrollees). Adaptive management offers a responsive framework for improving the targeting, recruitment, and retention of landholders to prefigure the intended ecological benefits. Our current nature crisis demands that we deliver enriching on-ground results despite and because of pervasive uncertainties. We, therefore, invite the conservation community to explore the promise of employing adaptive management to cope with enrolment uncertainties in complex socio-ecological systems where wicked environmental problems ceaselessly task the capability of voluntary PLC programs to co-evolve.