Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

Michael A. Cork; Nathaniel J. Henry; Stefanie Watson; Andrew J. Croneberger; Mathew Baumann; Ian D. Letourneau; Mingyou Yang; Audrey L. Serfes; Jaffar Abbas; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Lucas G. Abreu; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Basavaprabhu Achappa; Maryam Adabi; Tadele G. Adal; Adeyinka E. Adegbosin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Marcela Agudelo-Botero; Bright O. Ahinkorah; Keivan Ahmadi; Muktar B. Ahmed; Robert K. Alhassan; Vahid Alipour; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Robert Ancuceanu; Tudorel Andrei; Davood Anvari; Muhammad Aqeel; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Malke Asaad; Desta D. Atnafu; Alok Atreya; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Samad Azari; Darshan B. B; Atif A. Baig; Maciej Banach; Simachew A. Bante; Miguel A. Barboza; Sanjay Basu; Neeraj Bedi; Diana F. Bejarano Ramirez; Fenta-hun Y. Beyene; Yihienew M. Bezabih; Akshaya S. Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Sait M. Birlik; Zebenay W. Bitew; Somayeh Bohlouli; Archith Boloor; Andre R. Brunoni; Zahid A. Butt; Rosario Cárdenas; Felix Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Casta-ñeda-Orjuela; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Aubrey J. Cook; Natalie M. Cormier; Saad M. A . Dahlawi; Farah Daoud; Claudio A. Dávila-Cervantes; Nicole Davis Weaver; Fernando P. De la Hoz; Feleke M. Demeke; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Keshab Deuba; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Govinda P. Dhungana; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Andre R. Duraes; Arielle W. Eagan; Lucas Earl; Andem Effiong; Maysaa El Sayed Zak; Maha El Tantawi; Rajesh Elayedath; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Andre Faro; Nazir Fattahi; Nelsensius K. Fauk; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A. Foigt; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M. Gad; Tesfay B. B. Gebremariam; Ketema B. Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak G. Gebremeskel; Hailay A. Gesesew; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Syed Amir Gilani; Mahaveer Golechha; Ugo Gori; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara N. G. Goulart; Harish C. Gugnani; Mark D. C. Guimaraes; Rafael A. Guimarães; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Emily Haeuser; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Teklehaimanot G. Haile; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Asif Hanif; Arief Hargono; Ninuk Hariyani; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Claudiu Herteliu; Hung Chak Ho; Ramesh Holla; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mowafa Househ; Bing-Fang Hwang; Charles U. Ibeneme; Segun E. Ibitoye; Olayinka S. Ilesanmi; Milena D. Ilic; Irena M. Ilic; Usman Iqbal; Deepa Jahagirdar; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Ravi P. Jha; Kimberly B. Johnson; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Tanuj Kanchan; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Salah Eddin Karimi; Getinet Kassahun; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Maryam Keramati; Nauman Khalid; Ejaz A. Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Md Nuruzzaman N. Khan; Khaled Khatab; Neda Kianipour; Yun Jin Kim; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Soewarta Kosen; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Ricardo S. Kuchenbecker; Vaman Kulkarni; Nithin Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Dharmesh K. Lal; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Paul H. Lee; Kate E. LeGrand; Bingyu Li; Shanshan Li; Xuefeng Liu; Hawraz I. M. Amin; Daiane B. Machado; Deepak Madi; Carlos Magis-Rodriguez; Deborah C. Malta; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Md Dilshad Manzar; Carlos A. Marrugo Arnedo; Francisco R. Martins-Melo; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Benjamin K. Mayala; Carlo E. Medina-Solís; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Tomislav Mestrovic; Andreea Mirica; Babak Moazen; Yousef Mohammad; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Mohammad Ali Moni; Masoud Moradi; Yousef Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Amin Mousavi Khaneghah; Ghulam Mustafa; Lillian Mwanri; Ravishankar Nagaraja; Ahamarshan J. Nagarajan; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Bruno R. Nascimento; M. Naveed; Vinod C. Nayak; Javad Nazari; Hadush Negash; Ionut Negoi; Samata Nepal; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Cuong T. Nguyen; Huong L. T. Nguyen; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nunez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Felix A. Ogbo; null et al

doi:10.1186/s12916-020-01876-4

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

Michael A. Cork, Nathaniel J. Henry, Stefanie Watson, Andrew J. Croneberger, Mathew Baumann, Ian D. Letourneau, Mingyou Yang, Audrey L. Serfes, Jaffar Abbas, Nooshin Abbasi, Hedayat Abbastabar, Lucas G. Abreu, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Basavaprabhu Achappa, Maryam Adabi, Tadele G. Adal, Adeyinka E. Adegbosin, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, Marcela Agudelo-BoteroBright O. Ahinkorah, Keivan Ahmadi, Muktar B. Ahmed, Robert K. Alhassan, Vahid Alipour, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Robert Ancuceanu, Tudorel Andrei, Davood Anvari, Muhammad Aqeel, Jalal Arabloo, Olatunde Aremu, Malke Asaad, Desta D. Atnafu, Alok Atreya, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Samad Azari, Darshan B. B, Atif A. Baig, Maciej Banach, Simachew A. Bante, Miguel A. Barboza, Sanjay Basu, Neeraj Bedi, Diana F. Bejarano Ramirez, Fenta-hun Y. Beyene, Yihienew M. Bezabih, Akshaya S. Bhagavathula, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Ali Bijani, Sait M. Birlik, Zebenay W. Bitew, Somayeh Bohlouli, Archith Boloor, Andre R. Brunoni, Zahid A. Butt, Rosario Cárdenas, Felix Carvalho, Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia, Carlos A. Casta-ñeda-Orjuela, Jaykaran Charan, Souranshu Chatterjee, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury, Devasahayam J. Christopher, Dinh-Toi Chu, Aubrey J. Cook, Natalie M. Cormier, Saad M. A . Dahlawi, Farah Daoud, Claudio A. Dávila-Cervantes, Nicole Davis Weaver, Fernando P. De la Hoz, Feleke M. Demeke, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Keshab Deuba, Samath D. Dharmaratne, Govinda P. Dhungana, Daniel Diaz, Shirin Djalalinia, Andre R. Duraes, Arielle W. Eagan, Lucas Earl, Andem Effiong, Maysaa El Sayed Zak, Maha El Tantawi, Rajesh Elayedath, Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Andre Faro, Nazir Fattahi, Nelsensius K. Fauk, Eduarda Fernandes, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Nataliya A. Foigt, Masoud Foroutan, Takeshi Fukumoto, Mohamed M. Gad, Tesfay B. B. Gebremariam, Ketema B. Gebremedhin, Gebreamlak G. Gebremeskel, Hailay A. Gesesew, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Syed Amir Gilani, Mahaveer Golechha, Ugo Gori, Alessandra C. Goulart, Bárbara N. G. Goulart, Harish C. Gugnani, Mark D. C. Guimaraes, Rafael A. Guimarães, Yuming Guo, Rahul Gupta, Emily Haeuser, Mohammad Rifat Haider, Teklehaimanot G. Haile, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Asif Hanif, Arief Hargono, Ninuk Hariyani, Soheil Hassanipour, Hadi Hassankhani, Khezar Hayat, Claudiu Herteliu, Hung Chak Ho, Ramesh Holla, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mowafa Househ, Bing-Fang Hwang, Charles U. Ibeneme, Segun E. Ibitoye, Olayinka S. Ilesanmi, Milena D. Ilic, Irena M. Ilic, Usman Iqbal, Deepa Jahagirdar, Vardhmaan Jain, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Ravi P. Jha, Kimberly B. Johnson, Nitin Joseph, Farahnaz Joukar, Leila R. Kalankesh, Rohollah Kalhor, Tanuj Kanchan, Behzad Karami Matin, André Karch, Salah Eddin Karimi, Getinet Kassahun, Gbenga A. Kayode, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Maryam Keramati, Nauman Khalid, Ejaz A. Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Md Nuruzzaman N. Khan, Khaled Khatab, Neda Kianipour, Yun Jin Kim, Sezer Kisa, Adnan Kisa, Soewarta Kosen, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Ricardo S. Kuchenbecker, Vaman Kulkarni, Nithin Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Om P. Kurmi, Dian Kusuma, Carlo La Vecchia, Dharmesh K. Lal, Iván Landires, Savita Lasrado, Paul H. Lee, Kate E. LeGrand, Bingyu Li, Shanshan Li, Xuefeng Liu, Hawraz I. M. Amin, Daiane B. Machado, Deepak Madi, Carlos Magis-Rodriguez, Deborah C. Malta, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Md Dilshad Manzar, Carlos A. Marrugo Arnedo, Francisco R. Martins-Melo, Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi, Benjamin K. Mayala, Carlo E. Medina-Solís, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G. Menezes, Tomislav Mestrovic, Andreea Mirica, Babak Moazen, Yousef Mohammad, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Reza Mohammadpourhodki, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Mohammad Ali Moni, Masoud Moradi, Yousef Moradi, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Paula Moraga, Amin Mousavi Khaneghah, Ghulam Mustafa, Lillian Mwanri, Ravishankar Nagaraja, Ahamarshan J. Nagarajan, Mukhammad David Naimzada, Bruno R. Nascimento, M. Naveed, Vinod C. Nayak, Javad Nazari, Hadush Negash, Ionut Negoi, Samata Nepal, Georges Nguefack-Tsague, Cuong T. Nguyen, Huong L. T. Nguyen, Rajan Nikbakhsh, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Virginia Nunez-Samudio, Bogdan Oancea, Felix A. Ogbo, et al

Western Sydney University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. Methods: We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Results: All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries—apart from Ecuador—across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups—the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Conclusions: Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.

Original language	English
Article number	4
Number of pages	25
Journal	BMC Medicine
Volume	19
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01876-4
Publication status	Published - 2021

Open Access - Access Right Statement

© The Author(s). 2021 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

Keywords

AIDS (disease)
HIV (viruses)
mortality
recording and registration
small area statistics

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1186/s12916-020-01876-4

Cite this

Cork, M. A., Henry, N. J., Watson, S., Croneberger, A. J., Baumann, M., Letourneau, I. D., Yang, M., Serfes, A. L., Abbas, J., Abbasi, N., Abbastabar, H., Abreu, L. G., Abu-Gharbieh, E., Achappa, B., Adabi, M., Adal, T. G., Adegbosin, A. E., Adekanmbi, V., Adetokunboh, O. O., ... et al (2021). Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems. BMC Medicine, 19(1), Article 4. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01876-4

@article{1856d9d2a2a3421f89989e2792cc0760,

title = "Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems",

abstract = "Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. Methods: We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Results: All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries—apart from Ecuador—across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups—the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Conclusions: Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.",

keywords = "AIDS (disease), HIV (viruses), mortality, recording and registration, small area statistics",

author = "Cork, {Michael A.} and Henry, {Nathaniel J.} and Stefanie Watson and Croneberger, {Andrew J.} and Mathew Baumann and Letourneau, {Ian D.} and Mingyou Yang and Serfes, {Audrey L.} and Jaffar Abbas and Nooshin Abbasi and Hedayat Abbastabar and Abreu, {Lucas G.} and Eman Abu-Gharbieh and Basavaprabhu Achappa and Maryam Adabi and Adal, {Tadele G.} and Adegbosin, {Adeyinka E.} and Victor Adekanmbi and Adetokunboh, {Olatunji O.} and Marcela Agudelo-Botero and Ahinkorah, {Bright O.} and Keivan Ahmadi and Ahmed, {Muktar B.} and Alhassan, {Robert K.} and Vahid Alipour and Amir Almasi-Hashiani and Nelson Alvis-Guzman and Robert Ancuceanu and Tudorel Andrei and Davood Anvari and Muhammad Aqeel and Jalal Arabloo and Olatunde Aremu and Malke Asaad and Atnafu, {Desta D.} and Alok Atreya and {Ayala Quintanilla}, {Beatriz Paulina} and Samad Azari and B, {Darshan B.} and Baig, {Atif A.} and Maciej Banach and Bante, {Simachew A.} and Barboza, {Miguel A.} and Sanjay Basu and Neeraj Bedi and {Bejarano Ramirez}, {Diana F.} and Beyene, {Fenta-hun Y.} and Bezabih, {Yihienew M.} and Bhagavathula, {Akshaya S.} and Nikha Bhardwaj and Pankaj Bhardwaj and Krittika Bhattacharyya and Bhutta, {Zulfiqar A.} and Ali Bijani and Birlik, {Sait M.} and Bitew, {Zebenay W.} and Somayeh Bohlouli and Archith Boloor and Brunoni, {Andre R.} and Butt, {Zahid A.} and Rosario C{\'a}rdenas and Felix Carvalho and Castaldelli-Maia, {Joao Mauricio} and Casta-{\~n}eda-Orjuela, {Carlos A.} and Jaykaran Charan and Souranshu Chatterjee and Chattu, {Vijay Kumar} and Chattu, {Soosanna Kumary} and Chowdhury, {Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir} and Christopher, {Devasahayam J.} and Dinh-Toi Chu and Cook, {Aubrey J.} and Cormier, {Natalie M.} and Dahlawi, {Saad M. A .} and Farah Daoud and D{\'a}vila-Cervantes, {Claudio A.} and {Davis Weaver}, Nicole and {De la Hoz}, {Fernando P.} and Demeke, {Feleke M.} and Edgar Denova-Guti{\'e}rrez and Kebede Deribe and Keshab Deuba and Dharmaratne, {Samath D.} and Dhungana, {Govinda P.} and Daniel Diaz and Shirin Djalalinia and Duraes, {Andre R.} and Eagan, {Arielle W.} and Lucas Earl and Andem Effiong and {El Sayed Zak}, Maysaa and {El Tantawi}, Maha and Rajesh Elayedath and El-Jaafary, {Shaimaa I.} and Faraon, {Emerito Jose A.} and Andre Faro and Nazir Fattahi and Fauk, {Nelsensius K.} and Eduarda Fernandes and Irina Filip and Florian Fischer and Foigt, {Nataliya A.} and Masoud Foroutan and Takeshi Fukumoto and Gad, {Mohamed M.} and Gebremariam, {Tesfay B. B.} and Gebremedhin, {Ketema B.} and Gebremeskel, {Gebreamlak G.} and Gesesew, {Hailay A.} and Keyghobad Ghadiri and Ahmad Ghashghaee and Gilani, {Syed Amir} and Mahaveer Golechha and Ugo Gori and Goulart, {Alessandra C.} and Goulart, {B{\'a}rbara N. G.} and Gugnani, {Harish C.} and Guimaraes, {Mark D. C.} and Guimar{\~a}es, {Rafael A.} and Yuming Guo and Rahul Gupta and Emily Haeuser and Haider, {Mohammad Rifat} and Haile, {Teklehaimanot G.} and Arvin Haj-Mirzaian and Arya Haj-Mirzaian and Asif Hanif and Arief Hargono and Ninuk Hariyani and Soheil Hassanipour and Hadi Hassankhani and Khezar Hayat and Claudiu Herteliu and Ho, {Hung Chak} and Ramesh Holla and Mehdi Hosseinzadeh and Mowafa Househ and Bing-Fang Hwang and Ibeneme, {Charles U.} and Ibitoye, {Segun E.} and Ilesanmi, {Olayinka S.} and Ilic, {Milena D.} and Ilic, {Irena M.} and Usman Iqbal and Deepa Jahagirdar and Vardhmaan Jain and Mihajlo Jakovljevic and Jha, {Ravi P.} and Johnson, {Kimberly B.} and Nitin Joseph and Farahnaz Joukar and Kalankesh, {Leila R.} and Rohollah Kalhor and Tanuj Kanchan and {Karami Matin}, Behzad and Andr{\'e} Karch and Karimi, {Salah Eddin} and Getinet Kassahun and Kayode, {Gbenga A.} and {Kazemi Karyani}, Ali and Maryam Keramati and Nauman Khalid and Khan, {Ejaz A.} and Gulfaraz Khan and Khan, {Md Nuruzzaman N.} and Khaled Khatab and Neda Kianipour and Kim, {Yun Jin} and Sezer Kisa and Adnan Kisa and Soewarta Kosen and {Koulmane Laxminarayana}, {Sindhura Lakshmi} and Ai Koyanagi and Kewal Krishan and {Kuate Defo}, Barthelemy and Kuchenbecker, {Ricardo S.} and Vaman Kulkarni and Nithin Kumar and Manasi Kumar and Kurmi, {Om P.} and Dian Kusuma and {La Vecchia}, Carlo and Lal, {Dharmesh K.} and Iv{\'a}n Landires and Savita Lasrado and Lee, {Paul H.} and LeGrand, {Kate E.} and Bingyu Li and Shanshan Li and Xuefeng Liu and Amin, {Hawraz I. M.} and Machado, {Daiane B.} and Deepak Madi and Carlos Magis-Rodriguez and Malta, {Deborah C.} and Mansournia, {Mohammad Ali} and Manzar, {Md Dilshad} and {Marrugo Arnedo}, {Carlos A.} and Martins-Melo, {Francisco R.} and Masoumi, {Seyedeh Zahra} and Mayala, {Benjamin K.} and Medina-Sol{\'i}s, {Carlo E.} and Memish, {Ziad A.} and Walter Mendoza and Menezes, {Ritesh G.} and Tomislav Mestrovic and Andreea Mirica and Babak Moazen and Yousef Mohammad and Mezerji, {Naser Mohammad Gholi} and Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani and Reza Mohammadpourhodki and Shafiu Mohammed and Mokdad, {Ali H.} and Moni, {Mohammad Ali} and Masoud Moradi and Yousef Moradi and Rahmatollah Moradzadeh and Paula Moraga and {Mousavi Khaneghah}, Amin and Ghulam Mustafa and Lillian Mwanri and Ravishankar Nagaraja and Nagarajan, {Ahamarshan J.} and Naimzada, {Mukhammad David} and Nascimento, {Bruno R.} and M. Naveed and Nayak, {Vinod C.} and Javad Nazari and Hadush Negash and Ionut Negoi and Samata Nepal and Georges Nguefack-Tsague and Nguyen, {Cuong T.} and Nguyen, {Huong L. T.} and Rajan Nikbakhsh and Noubiap, {Jean Jacques} and Virginia Nunez-Samudio and Bogdan Oancea and Ogbo, {Felix A.} and {et al}",

year = "2021",

doi = "10.1186/s12916-020-01876-4",

language = "English",

volume = "19",

journal = "BMC Medicine",

issn = "1741-7015",

publisher = "BioMed Central",

number = "1",

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Cork, MA, Henry, NJ, Watson, S, Croneberger, AJ, Baumann, M, Letourneau, ID, Yang, M, Serfes, AL, Abbas, J, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abreu, LG, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Achappa, B, Adabi, M, Adal, TG, Adegbosin, AE, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Agudelo-Botero, M, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, MB, Alhassan, RK, Alipour, V, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Alvis-Guzman, N, Ancuceanu, R, Andrei, T, Anvari, D, Aqeel, M, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Asaad, M, Atnafu, DD, Atreya, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Azari, S, B, DB, Baig, AA, Banach, M, Bante, SA, Barboza, MA, Basu, S, Bedi, N, Bejarano Ramirez, DF, Beyene, FY, Bezabih, YM, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Birlik, SM, Bitew, ZW, Bohlouli, S, Boloor, A, Brunoni, AR, Butt, ZA, Cárdenas, R, Carvalho, F, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Casta-ñeda-Orjuela, CA, Charan, J, Chatterjee, S, Chattu, VK, Chattu, SK, Chowdhury, MAK, Christopher, DJ, Chu, D-T, Cook, AJ, Cormier, NM, Dahlawi, SMA, Daoud, F, Dávila-Cervantes, CA, Davis Weaver, N, De la Hoz, FP, Demeke, FM, Denova-Gutiérrez, E, Deribe, K, Deuba, K, Dharmaratne, SD, Dhungana, GP, Diaz, D, Djalalinia, S, Duraes, AR, Eagan, AW, Earl, L, Effiong, A, El Sayed Zak, M, El Tantawi, M, Elayedath, R, El-Jaafary, SI, Faraon, EJA, Faro, A, Fattahi, N, Fauk, NK, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Foroutan, M, Fukumoto, T, Gad, MM, Gebremariam, TBB, Gebremedhin, KB, Gebremeskel, GG, Gesesew, HA, Ghadiri, K, Ghashghaee, A, Gilani, SA, Golechha, M, Gori, U, Goulart, AC, Goulart, BNG, Gugnani, HC, Guimaraes, MDC, Guimarães, RA, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Haeuser, E, Haider, MR, Haile, TG, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hanif, A, Hargono, A, Hariyani, N, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Hayat, K, Herteliu, C, Ho, HC, Holla, R, Hosseinzadeh, M, Househ, M, Hwang, B-F, Ibeneme, CU, Ibitoye, SE, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, MD, Ilic, IM, Iqbal, U, Jahagirdar, D, Jain, V, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Johnson, KB, Joseph, N, Joukar, F, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Kanchan, T, Karami Matin, B, Karch, A, Karimi, SE, Kassahun, G, Kayode, GA, Kazemi Karyani, A, Keramati, M, Khalid, N, Khan, EA, Khan, G, Khan, MNN, Khatab, K, Kianipour, N, Kim, YJ, Kisa, S, Kisa, A, Kosen, S, Koulmane Laxminarayana, SL, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Kuate Defo, B, Kuchenbecker, RS, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, N, Kumar, M, Kurmi, OP, Kusuma, D, La Vecchia, C, Lal, DK, Landires, I, Lasrado, S, Lee, PH, LeGrand, KE, Li, B, Li, S, Liu, X, Amin, HIM, Machado, DB, Madi, D, Magis-Rodriguez, C, Malta, DC, Mansournia, MA, Manzar, MD, Marrugo Arnedo, CA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masoumi, SZ, Mayala, BK, Medina-Solís, CE, Memish, ZA, Mendoza, W, Menezes, RG, Mestrovic, T, Mirica, A, Moazen, B, Mohammad, Y, Mezerji, NMG, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Moni, MA, Moradi, M, Moradi, Y, Moradzadeh, R, Moraga, P, Mousavi Khaneghah, A, Mustafa, G, Mwanri, L, Nagaraja, R, Nagarajan, AJ, Naimzada, MD, Nascimento, BR, Naveed, M, Nayak, VC, Nazari, J, Negash, H, Negoi, I, Nepal, S, Nguefack-Tsague, G, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, HLT, Nikbakhsh, R, Noubiap, JJ, Nunez-Samudio, V, Oancea, B, Ogbo, FA & et al 2021, 'Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems', BMC Medicine, vol. 19, no. 1, 4. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01876-4

TY - JOUR

T1 - Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

AU - Cork, Michael A.

AU - Henry, Nathaniel J.

AU - Watson, Stefanie

AU - Croneberger, Andrew J.

AU - Baumann, Mathew

AU - Letourneau, Ian D.

AU - Yang, Mingyou

AU - Serfes, Audrey L.

AU - Abbas, Jaffar

AU - Abbasi, Nooshin

AU - Abbastabar, Hedayat

AU - Abreu, Lucas G.

AU - Abu-Gharbieh, Eman

AU - Achappa, Basavaprabhu

AU - Adabi, Maryam

AU - Adal, Tadele G.

AU - Adegbosin, Adeyinka E.

AU - Adekanmbi, Victor

AU - Adetokunboh, Olatunji O.

AU - Agudelo-Botero, Marcela

AU - Ahinkorah, Bright O.

AU - Ahmadi, Keivan

AU - Ahmed, Muktar B.

AU - Alhassan, Robert K.

AU - Alipour, Vahid

AU - Almasi-Hashiani, Amir

AU - Alvis-Guzman, Nelson

AU - Ancuceanu, Robert

AU - Andrei, Tudorel

AU - Anvari, Davood

AU - Aqeel, Muhammad

AU - Arabloo, Jalal

AU - Aremu, Olatunde

AU - Asaad, Malke

AU - Atnafu, Desta D.

AU - Atreya, Alok

AU - Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina

AU - Azari, Samad

AU - B, Darshan B.

AU - Baig, Atif A.

AU - Banach, Maciej

AU - Bante, Simachew A.

AU - Barboza, Miguel A.

AU - Basu, Sanjay

AU - Bedi, Neeraj

AU - Bejarano Ramirez, Diana F.

AU - Beyene, Fenta-hun Y.

AU - Bezabih, Yihienew M.

AU - Bhagavathula, Akshaya S.

AU - Bhardwaj, Nikha

AU - Bhardwaj, Pankaj

AU - Bhattacharyya, Krittika

AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.

AU - Bijani, Ali

AU - Birlik, Sait M.

AU - Bitew, Zebenay W.

AU - Bohlouli, Somayeh

AU - Boloor, Archith

AU - Brunoni, Andre R.

AU - Butt, Zahid A.

AU - Cárdenas, Rosario

AU - Carvalho, Felix

AU - Castaldelli-Maia, Joao Mauricio

AU - Casta-ñeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.

AU - Charan, Jaykaran

AU - Chatterjee, Souranshu

AU - Chattu, Vijay Kumar

AU - Chattu, Soosanna Kumary

AU - Chowdhury, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir

AU - Christopher, Devasahayam J.

AU - Chu, Dinh-Toi

AU - Cook, Aubrey J.

AU - Cormier, Natalie M.

AU - Dahlawi, Saad M. A .

AU - Daoud, Farah

AU - Dávila-Cervantes, Claudio A.

AU - Davis Weaver, Nicole

AU - De la Hoz, Fernando P.

AU - Demeke, Feleke M.

AU - Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar

AU - Deribe, Kebede

AU - Deuba, Keshab

AU - Dharmaratne, Samath D.

AU - Dhungana, Govinda P.

AU - Diaz, Daniel

AU - Djalalinia, Shirin

AU - Duraes, Andre R.

AU - Eagan, Arielle W.

AU - Earl, Lucas

AU - Effiong, Andem

AU - El Sayed Zak, Maysaa

AU - El Tantawi, Maha

AU - Elayedath, Rajesh

AU - El-Jaafary, Shaimaa I.

AU - Faraon, Emerito Jose A.

AU - Faro, Andre

AU - Fattahi, Nazir

AU - Fauk, Nelsensius K.

AU - Fernandes, Eduarda

AU - Filip, Irina

AU - Fischer, Florian

AU - Foigt, Nataliya A.

AU - Foroutan, Masoud

AU - Fukumoto, Takeshi

AU - Gad, Mohamed M.

AU - Gebremariam, Tesfay B. B.

AU - Gebremedhin, Ketema B.

AU - Gebremeskel, Gebreamlak G.

AU - Gesesew, Hailay A.

AU - Ghadiri, Keyghobad

AU - Ghashghaee, Ahmad

AU - Gilani, Syed Amir

AU - Golechha, Mahaveer

AU - Gori, Ugo

AU - Goulart, Alessandra C.

AU - Goulart, Bárbara N. G.

AU - Gugnani, Harish C.

AU - Guimaraes, Mark D. C.

AU - Guimarães, Rafael A.

AU - Guo, Yuming

AU - Gupta, Rahul

AU - Haeuser, Emily

AU - Haider, Mohammad Rifat

AU - Haile, Teklehaimanot G.

AU - Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin

AU - Haj-Mirzaian, Arya

AU - Hanif, Asif

AU - Hargono, Arief

AU - Hariyani, Ninuk

AU - Hassanipour, Soheil

AU - Hassankhani, Hadi

AU - Hayat, Khezar

AU - Herteliu, Claudiu

AU - Ho, Hung Chak

AU - Holla, Ramesh

AU - Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi

AU - Househ, Mowafa

AU - Hwang, Bing-Fang

AU - Ibeneme, Charles U.

AU - Ibitoye, Segun E.

AU - Ilesanmi, Olayinka S.

AU - Ilic, Milena D.

AU - Ilic, Irena M.

AU - Iqbal, Usman

AU - Jahagirdar, Deepa

AU - Jain, Vardhmaan

AU - Jakovljevic, Mihajlo

AU - Jha, Ravi P.

AU - Johnson, Kimberly B.

AU - Joseph, Nitin

AU - Joukar, Farahnaz

AU - Kalankesh, Leila R.

AU - Kalhor, Rohollah

AU - Kanchan, Tanuj

AU - Karami Matin, Behzad

AU - Karch, André

AU - Karimi, Salah Eddin

AU - Kassahun, Getinet

AU - Kayode, Gbenga A.

AU - Kazemi Karyani, Ali

AU - Keramati, Maryam

AU - Khalid, Nauman

AU - Khan, Ejaz A.

AU - Khan, Gulfaraz

AU - Khan, Md Nuruzzaman N.

AU - Khatab, Khaled

AU - Kianipour, Neda

AU - Kim, Yun Jin

AU - Kisa, Sezer

AU - Kisa, Adnan

AU - Kosen, Soewarta

AU - Koulmane Laxminarayana, Sindhura Lakshmi

AU - Koyanagi, Ai

AU - Krishan, Kewal

AU - Kuate Defo, Barthelemy

AU - Kuchenbecker, Ricardo S.

AU - Kulkarni, Vaman

AU - Kumar, Nithin

AU - Kumar, Manasi

AU - Kurmi, Om P.

AU - Kusuma, Dian

AU - La Vecchia, Carlo

AU - Lal, Dharmesh K.

AU - Landires, Iván

AU - Lasrado, Savita

AU - Lee, Paul H.

AU - LeGrand, Kate E.

AU - Li, Bingyu

AU - Li, Shanshan

AU - Liu, Xuefeng

AU - Amin, Hawraz I. M.

AU - Machado, Daiane B.

AU - Madi, Deepak

AU - Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos

AU - Malta, Deborah C.

AU - Mansournia, Mohammad Ali

AU - Manzar, Md Dilshad

AU - Marrugo Arnedo, Carlos A.

AU - Martins-Melo, Francisco R.

AU - Masoumi, Seyedeh Zahra

AU - Mayala, Benjamin K.

AU - Medina-Solís, Carlo E.

AU - Memish, Ziad A.

AU - Mendoza, Walter

AU - Menezes, Ritesh G.

AU - Mestrovic, Tomislav

AU - Mirica, Andreea

AU - Moazen, Babak

AU - Mohammad, Yousef

AU - Mezerji, Naser Mohammad Gholi

AU - Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah

AU - Mohammadpourhodki, Reza

AU - Mohammed, Shafiu

AU - Mokdad, Ali H.

AU - Moni, Mohammad Ali

AU - Moradi, Masoud

AU - Moradi, Yousef

AU - Moradzadeh, Rahmatollah

AU - Moraga, Paula

AU - Mousavi Khaneghah, Amin

AU - Mustafa, Ghulam

AU - Mwanri, Lillian

AU - Nagaraja, Ravishankar

AU - Nagarajan, Ahamarshan J.

AU - Naimzada, Mukhammad David

AU - Nascimento, Bruno R.

AU - Naveed, M.

AU - Nayak, Vinod C.

AU - Nazari, Javad

AU - Negash, Hadush

AU - Negoi, Ionut

AU - Nepal, Samata

AU - Nguefack-Tsague, Georges

AU - Nguyen, Cuong T.

AU - Nguyen, Huong L. T.

AU - Nikbakhsh, Rajan

AU - Noubiap, Jean Jacques

AU - Nunez-Samudio, Virginia

AU - Oancea, Bogdan

AU - Ogbo, Felix A.

AU - et al, null

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. Methods: We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Results: All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries—apart from Ecuador—across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups—the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Conclusions: Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.

AB - Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. Methods: We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Results: All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries—apart from Ecuador—across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups—the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Conclusions: Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.

KW - AIDS (disease)

KW - HIV (viruses)

KW - mortality

KW - recording and registration

KW - small area statistics

UR - http://hdl.handle.net/1959.7/uws:59015

U2 - 10.1186/s12916-020-01876-4

DO - 10.1186/s12916-020-01876-4

M3 - Article

SN - 1741-7015

VL - 19

JO - BMC Medicine

JF - BMC Medicine

IS - 1

M1 - 4

ER -

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

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