TY - JOUR
T1 - Matrix-based system reliability method and applications to bridge networks
AU - Kang, Won-Hee
AU - Song, Junho
AU - Gardoni, Paolo
PY - 2008
Y1 - 2008
N2 - Using a matrix-based system reliability (MSR) method, one can estimate the probabilities of complex system events by simple matrix calculations. Unlike existing system reliability methods whose complexity depends highly on that of the system event, the MSR method describes any general system event in a simple matrix form and therefore provides a more convenient way of handling the system event and estimating its probability. Even in the case where one has incomplete information on the component probabilities and/or the statistical dependence thereof, the matrix-based framework enables us to estimate the narrowest bounds on the system failure probability by linear programming. This paper presents the MSR method and applies it to a transportation network consisting of bridge structures. The seismic failure probabilities of bridges are estimated by use of the predictive fragility curves developed by a Bayesian methodology based on experimental data and existing deterministic models of the seismic capacity and demand. Using the MSR method, the probability of disconnection between each city/county and a critical facility is estimated. The probability mass function of the number of failed bridges is computed as well. In order to quantify the relative importance of bridges, the MSR method is used to compute the conditional probabilities of bridge failures given that there is at least one city disconnected from the critical facility. The bounds on the probability of disconnection are also obtained for cases with incomplete information.
AB - Using a matrix-based system reliability (MSR) method, one can estimate the probabilities of complex system events by simple matrix calculations. Unlike existing system reliability methods whose complexity depends highly on that of the system event, the MSR method describes any general system event in a simple matrix form and therefore provides a more convenient way of handling the system event and estimating its probability. Even in the case where one has incomplete information on the component probabilities and/or the statistical dependence thereof, the matrix-based framework enables us to estimate the narrowest bounds on the system failure probability by linear programming. This paper presents the MSR method and applies it to a transportation network consisting of bridge structures. The seismic failure probabilities of bridges are estimated by use of the predictive fragility curves developed by a Bayesian methodology based on experimental data and existing deterministic models of the seismic capacity and demand. Using the MSR method, the probability of disconnection between each city/county and a critical facility is estimated. The probability mass function of the number of failed bridges is computed as well. In order to quantify the relative importance of bridges, the MSR method is used to compute the conditional probabilities of bridge failures given that there is at least one city disconnected from the critical facility. The bounds on the probability of disconnection are also obtained for cases with incomplete information.
KW - Bayesian statistical decision theory
KW - bridges
KW - information analysis
KW - large scale systems
KW - reliability analysis
UR - http://handle.uws.edu.au:8081/1959.7/512630
U2 - 10.1016/j.ress.2008.02.011
DO - 10.1016/j.ress.2008.02.011
M3 - Article
SN - 0951-8320
JO - Reliability Engineering and System Safety
JF - Reliability Engineering and System Safety
ER -