Modelling tundra vegetation response to recent Arctic warming

Paul A. Miller, Benjamin Smith

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The Arctic land area has warmed by >1 °C in the last 30 years and there is evidence that this has led to increased productivity and stature of tundra vegetation and reduced albedo, effecting a positive (amplifying) feedback to climate warming. We applied an individual-based dynamic vegetation model over the Arctic forced by observed climate and atmospheric CO2 for 1980–2006. Averaged over the study area, the model simulated increases in primary production and leaf area index, and an increasing representation of shrubs and trees in vegetation. The main underlying mechanism was a warming-driven increase in growing season length, enhancing the production of shrubs and trees to the detriment of shaded ground-level vegetation. The simulated vegetation changes were estimated to correspond to a 1.75 % decline in snow-season albedo. Implications for modelling future climate impacts on Arctic ecosystems and for the incorporation of biogeophysical feedback mechanisms in Arctic system models are discussed.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)281-291
Number of pages11
JournalAmbio
Volume41
Issue numberSupplement 3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012

Keywords

  • Arctic Regions
  • climatic changes
  • tundra ecology
  • tundra plants

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Modelling tundra vegetation response to recent Arctic warming'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this