Novel predictors of major adverse cardiovascular events in renal transplant patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Adult patients with a prior renal transplantation are at increased risk of accelerated cardiovascular disease. This study aims to identify key clinical and biochemical predictors of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in this population. Understanding these predictors may improve risk stratification and enhance long-term outcomes for kidney transplant recipients. A systematic literature search of medical databases was performed using PRISMA principles to identify all relevant studies assessing clinical and biochemical parameters in adult patients with a prior renal transplantation (2000–2024; English only; PROSPERO registration CRD42024596207). Data for a range of clinical and biochemical parameters were individually extracted, and those with low heterogeneity were then meta-analysed using a random-effects model for overall effect size and assessed through standardised mean difference (SMD) and odds ratios (ORs). The primary outcomes assessed were fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events occurring after renal transplantation during hospitalisation and up to 10 years post discharge. Of 506 screened studies, 17 peer-reviewed articles met inclusion criteria and included a total of 181,938 renal transplant patients. The key novel predictors of MACE included pre-transplant haemodialysis (OR 2.562, 95% CI = 1.585–4.139, p < 0.001) and delayed graft function (OR 2.113, 95% CI = 1.397–3.198, p < 0.001). Importantly, transplant from a living donor (OR 0.463, 95% CI = 0.393–0.546, p < 0.001) was a protective factor. Traditional cardiovascular risk factor profiles were all predictors of MACE events (p < 0.05). This study identified several traditional and novel predictors of cardiovascular events in patients with pre-existing renal transplantation. Early recognition of these high-risk clinical predictors should prompt more aggressive monitoring and treatment.