Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock returns in China

Wensheng Kang, Ronald A. Ratti

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    102 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    This paper examines the interdependence of China’s policy uncertainty, the global oil market and stock market returns in China. A structural VAR model is estimated that shows that a positive shock to economic policy uncertainty in China has a delayed negative effect on global oil production, real oil prices and real stock market returns. Shocks to oil market-specific demand significantly raise China’s economic policy uncertainty and reduce the real stock market returns. As measured by a spillover index, the interdependence between these variables has been rising since 2003 as China’s influence in the oil market has increased. An equivalent spillover index calculated for the US is smaller and has been largely flat over time.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)657-676
    Number of pages20
    JournalEconomics of Transition
    Volume23
    Issue number4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2015

    Keywords

    • China
    • petroleum
    • stock exchanges
    • stocks
    • uncertainty

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