Peacetime or peaceful? : identifying change and continuity in Chinese grand strategy from a global historical perspective

There is a debate in the academic literature as to precisely when great powers ditch one grand strategy for another. The pertinent historical literature (as well as IR theory) suggest for the most part that rising powers' grand strategies change as their relative power shifts. Rising powers usually become more aggressive over time. So can we assume China's current "peaceful" strategy will also change, e.g. turn more aggressive as US relative power wanes? This article's answer is a qualified yes. That is to say, Chinese grand strategy will only become aggressive or destabilising if Beijing decides to warm to Moscow much more than the facts on the ground currently suggest.