Portfolio asset allocation strategy for US unlisted sector-specific real estate across interest rate cycles

Real estate constitutes a core segment of the global building and built environment industry, absorbing substantial volumes of international institutional investment capital. Unlisted real estate has featured prominently in the portfolios of global institutional investors. In recent years, global real estate markets have been significantly impacted by rising interest rates, posing a real and significant risk to investors. In response, more tactical asset allocation strategies have been adopted. Investment fund managers and institutional investors seek to rebalance through sector selections and sectoral portfolio diversification when tactical asset allocation strategy may be insufficient in phases of heightened rate volatility. By deploying MSCI US unlisted sector-specific real estate quarterly total returns between March 1999 and June 2024, this research assesses portfolio asset allocation strategy for unlisted sector-specific real estate over both rate-easing and rate-tightening phases to investigate how the structural change shapes portfolio asset allocation strategy resulting from the rising interest rates. Overall, the findings show that unlisted sector-specific real estate played a substantial role in the US institutional mixed-asset portfolios during rate-hike phases in the period before the COVID-19 recession. The allocation to unlisted sector-specific real estate was close to the maximum 10% cap, averaging 9.5% during rate-easing phases but decreasing to 7.5% during rate-tightening phases. At a sector level, unlisted office real estate allocations were higher across constrained mixed-asset and real estate portfolios in rate-tightening phases relative to those in rate-easing phases, while portfolio asset allocations to unlisted real estate sectors were lower in rate-easing phases relative to those in rate-tightening phases. These empirical findings provide real estate investment stakeholders with practical and crucial insights into rebalancing portfolios’ tactical asset allocation strategies for unlisted sector-specific real estate responding to interest rate phases and macro-financial markets, albeit static asset allocation strategies being insufficient in phases of heightened rate volatility. The investment implications of empirical outcomes are identified and further discussed.