Prognostic models to predict survival in patients with pancreatic cancer : a systematic review

Liane J. Ioannou; Ashika D. Maharaj; John R. Zalcberg; Jesse T. Loughnan; Daniel G. Croagh; Charles H. Pilgrim; David Goldstein; James G. Kench; Neil D. Merrett; Arul Earnest; Elizabeth A. Burmeister; Kate White; Rachel E. Neale; Sue M. Evans

doi:10.1016/j.hpb.2022.01.011

Prognostic models to predict survival in patients with pancreatic cancer : a systematic review

Liane J. Ioannou, Ashika D. Maharaj, John R. Zalcberg, Jesse T. Loughnan, Daniel G. Croagh, Charles H. Pilgrim, David Goldstein, James G. Kench, Neil D. Merrett, Arul Earnest, Elizabeth A. Burmeister, Kate White, Rachel E. Neale, Sue M. Evans

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has poor survival. Current treatments offer little likelihood of cure or long-term survival. This systematic review evaluates prognostic models predicting overall survival in patients diagnosed with PDAC. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive search of eight electronic databases from their date of inception through to December 2019. Studies that published models predicting survival in patients with PDAC were identified. Results: 3297 studies were identified; 187 full-text articles were retrieved and 54 studies of 49 unique prognostic models were included. Of these, 28 (57.1%) were conducted in patients with advanced disease, 17 (34.7%) with resectable disease, and four (8.2%) in all patients. 34 (69.4%) models were validated, and 35 (71.4%) reported model discrimination, with only five models reporting values >0.70 in both derivation and validation cohorts. Many (n = 27) had a moderate to high risk of bias and most (n = 33) were developed using retrospective data. No variables were unanimously found to be predictive of survival when included in more than one study. Conclusion: Most prognostic models were developed using retrospective data and performed poorly. Future research should validate instruments performing well locally in international cohorts and investigate other potential predictors of survival.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1201-1216
Number of pages	16
Journal	HPB
Volume	24
Issue number	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hpb.2022.01.011
Publication status	Published - Aug 2022

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association Inc.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1016/j.hpb.2022.01.011

Cite this

Ioannou, L. J., Maharaj, A. D., Zalcberg, J. R., Loughnan, J. T., Croagh, D. G., Pilgrim, C. H., Goldstein, D., Kench, J. G., Merrett, N. D., Earnest, A., Burmeister, E. A., White, K., Neale, R. E., & Evans, S. M. (2022). Prognostic models to predict survival in patients with pancreatic cancer : a systematic review. HPB, 24(8), 1201-1216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hpb.2022.01.011

@article{84a812fba5bf438783234eeb6a72813b,

title = "Prognostic models to predict survival in patients with pancreatic cancer : a systematic review",

abstract = "Background: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has poor survival. Current treatments offer little likelihood of cure or long-term survival. This systematic review evaluates prognostic models predicting overall survival in patients diagnosed with PDAC. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive search of eight electronic databases from their date of inception through to December 2019. Studies that published models predicting survival in patients with PDAC were identified. Results: 3297 studies were identified; 187 full-text articles were retrieved and 54 studies of 49 unique prognostic models were included. Of these, 28 (57.1%) were conducted in patients with advanced disease, 17 (34.7%) with resectable disease, and four (8.2%) in all patients. 34 (69.4%) models were validated, and 35 (71.4%) reported model discrimination, with only five models reporting values >0.70 in both derivation and validation cohorts. Many (n = 27) had a moderate to high risk of bias and most (n = 33) were developed using retrospective data. No variables were unanimously found to be predictive of survival when included in more than one study. Conclusion: Most prognostic models were developed using retrospective data and performed poorly. Future research should validate instruments performing well locally in international cohorts and investigate other potential predictors of survival.",

author = "Ioannou, {Liane J.} and Maharaj, {Ashika D.} and Zalcberg, {John R.} and Loughnan, {Jesse T.} and Croagh, {Daniel G.} and Pilgrim, {Charles H.} and David Goldstein and Kench, {James G.} and Merrett, {Neil D.} and Arul Earnest and Burmeister, {Elizabeth A.} and Kate White and Neale, {Rachel E.} and Evans, {Sue M.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association Inc.",

year = "2022",

month = aug,

doi = "10.1016/j.hpb.2022.01.011",

language = "English",

volume = "24",

pages = "1201--1216",

journal = "HPB",

issn = "1365-182X",

publisher = "Elsevier B.V.",

number = "8",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Prognostic models to predict survival in patients with pancreatic cancer : a systematic review

AU - Ioannou, Liane J.

AU - Maharaj, Ashika D.

AU - Zalcberg, John R.

AU - Loughnan, Jesse T.

AU - Croagh, Daniel G.

AU - Pilgrim, Charles H.

AU - Goldstein, David

AU - Kench, James G.

AU - Merrett, Neil D.

AU - Earnest, Arul

AU - Burmeister, Elizabeth A.

AU - White, Kate

AU - Neale, Rachel E.

AU - Evans, Sue M.

PY - 2022/8

Y1 - 2022/8

N2 - Background: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has poor survival. Current treatments offer little likelihood of cure or long-term survival. This systematic review evaluates prognostic models predicting overall survival in patients diagnosed with PDAC. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive search of eight electronic databases from their date of inception through to December 2019. Studies that published models predicting survival in patients with PDAC were identified. Results: 3297 studies were identified; 187 full-text articles were retrieved and 54 studies of 49 unique prognostic models were included. Of these, 28 (57.1%) were conducted in patients with advanced disease, 17 (34.7%) with resectable disease, and four (8.2%) in all patients. 34 (69.4%) models were validated, and 35 (71.4%) reported model discrimination, with only five models reporting values >0.70 in both derivation and validation cohorts. Many (n = 27) had a moderate to high risk of bias and most (n = 33) were developed using retrospective data. No variables were unanimously found to be predictive of survival when included in more than one study. Conclusion: Most prognostic models were developed using retrospective data and performed poorly. Future research should validate instruments performing well locally in international cohorts and investigate other potential predictors of survival.

AB - Background: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has poor survival. Current treatments offer little likelihood of cure or long-term survival. This systematic review evaluates prognostic models predicting overall survival in patients diagnosed with PDAC. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive search of eight electronic databases from their date of inception through to December 2019. Studies that published models predicting survival in patients with PDAC were identified. Results: 3297 studies were identified; 187 full-text articles were retrieved and 54 studies of 49 unique prognostic models were included. Of these, 28 (57.1%) were conducted in patients with advanced disease, 17 (34.7%) with resectable disease, and four (8.2%) in all patients. 34 (69.4%) models were validated, and 35 (71.4%) reported model discrimination, with only five models reporting values >0.70 in both derivation and validation cohorts. Many (n = 27) had a moderate to high risk of bias and most (n = 33) were developed using retrospective data. No variables were unanimously found to be predictive of survival when included in more than one study. Conclusion: Most prognostic models were developed using retrospective data and performed poorly. Future research should validate instruments performing well locally in international cohorts and investigate other potential predictors of survival.

UR - https://hdl.handle.net/1959.7/uws:67028

U2 - 10.1016/j.hpb.2022.01.011

DO - 10.1016/j.hpb.2022.01.011

M3 - Article

C2 - 35289282

SN - 1365-182X

VL - 24

SP - 1201

EP - 1216

JO - HPB

JF - HPB

IS - 8

ER -

Prognostic models to predict survival in patients with pancreatic cancer : a systematic review

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this